Don’t Rush to Grade D-St on B-Day, Wait a Bit

The benchmark indices have exhibited subdued performance on the day of the Union Budget over the last decade. The Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex moved less than 1% on fi ve occasions during this period. However, both were relatively stronger a week after the key event, with gains recorded on seven out of ten occasions.

A month after the budget was announced, the Nifty witnessed swings of around 8% on either side during the period under review. Besides, the benchmark indices rose on six out of ten occasions three months after the budget, except for the steep 20% fall in 2020. In 2025, both Nifty and Sensex jumped nearly 4% three months after the Union Budget.

The broader market has mirrored the benchmark performance on the Budget even s. e rose Day. In the last seven Union Budgets, the Nifty Midcap 150 index ended lower on the Budget Day on fi ve occasions, falling as much as 2.4%. This trend reversed for the index’s performance one week after, as it rose on fi ve occasions.

Three months after Budget Day, the broader market witnessed sharp swings on both sides over the past decade. For the Nifty Midcap 150 index, the highest jump was around 13% in 2021, while the sharpest fall was 24% in 2020. In the last decade, the Nifty Smallcap 250 surged 19% but plunged as much as 30% three months after Budget Day.

A week after the budget, the Nifty Smallcap 250 index advanced on seven occasions in the last ten years, notching gains of up to 8.9%.