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1 hour ago
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I definitely understand why the Detroit Tigers don't want to move on from Tarik Skubal, given the history of packages for one-year rentals not being nearly as much as they should be.
At the same time, there's a very good chance that if the Tigers don't trade him now, they aren't going to get anything for him when it's all said and done.
There's a real expectation that Skubal is going to walk in free agency, so not getting something back for the best pitcher in Major League Baseball would be a major concern.
However, it seems the Los Angeles Dodgers will definitely remember some of the previous trades we've seen made for one-year rentals. When we also factor in how much Skubal has to be paid in the offseason if the team that trades for him wants to keep him around, it could lower the price.
It was recently brought up that some of those trades have been bad in the past, and that's ideal news for teams like the Dodgers.
“Trades involving a pitcher like Skubal, a Cy Young winner who will be a free agent after the season, are rare, but they're not unprecedented. It's instructive to look back at similar trades to get an idea of what the Tigers could expect to get back in a Skubal trade. And you know what? It's not great. Rental aces haven't fetched enormous returns at the trade deadline, historically,” Mike Axisa wrote.
Historically speaking, as Axisa noted, there really isn't much to discuss here.
Not to say that the Dodgers are going to get Skubal for the 77th-ranked prospect in their system, but they probably don't have to move as much as some think. I'd be surprised if the price were that low, but it won't be nearly as much as most people think.
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