Data Fog Intensifying for Fed as Shutdown Delays US Inflation Numbers

Article content

Article content

Turning south, economists will watch how a mid-October fuel price hike filters through to inflation in Egypt early in the week. On Friday, Israel’s rate of annual price growth is expected to remain at 2.5% in October, keeping policymakers cautious about easing monetary policy. 

Article content

Russian policymakers will watch October inflation data for evidence that it remains on a downward trend, after the central bank warned that elevated expectations may weigh on prospects for more rate cuts. Analysts expect GDP data to show that Russia’s economy continued to cool in the third quarter.

Article content

It’s a big week for public finances in Africa. On Wednesday, South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will deliver his medium-term budget in Cape Town, to be watched for signs of fiscal restraint as the government works to stabilize debt and reassure markets ahead of next year’s local elections. 

Article content

A tax windfall and spending restraint may help the National Treasury narrow deficit forecasts, but pressures to fund state companies and expand social programs risk eroding those gains and could weigh on the rand if fiscal consolidation falters.

Article content

Article content

On Thursday, Ghana’s Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson presents the second annual budget under President John Mahama — a key gauge of the administration’s economic direction. Investors will assess whether Forson maintains fiscal discipline under the International Monetary Fund program, and how he plans to finance the deficit.

Article content

A few monetary decisions are on the calendar in the wider region:

Article content

Article content

Article content

Latin America

Article content

Banco Central do Brasil early Tuesday posts the minutes of its Nov. 4-5 rate meeting, where the board, led by Governor Gabriel Galipolo, kept the key rate at a near two-decade high of 15%.

Article content

The minutes are unlikely to offer much in the way of guidance on the big question — that is, could BCB consider a rate cut in December — regardless of the likely deceleration in October’s inflation readings to be reported a hour later.

Article content

Colombia’s October inflation data, if the early consensus holds up, may land with a thud at the central bank and among investors, especially after September’s bigger-than-expected rise.

Article content

The core print likely re-accelerated to top 5% yet again, while the headline reading jumped closer to 5.5%, both well above BanRep’s 3% target.

Article content

The near-death experience for Argentina’s peso and economy ahead of the Oct. 26 mid-terms — coupled with expectations that devaluation has to be on the menu — likely raised the temperature on October consumer price data, due on Wednesday. Analysts’ year-end estimates have crept back up over 30%.

Article content

In Peru, policymakers led by central bank chief Julio Velarde are expected to hold at 4.25% for a second straight meeting. Guidance offered in the October meeting’s post-decision statement suggests that a line may have been drawn under the BCRP’s stop-and-go, two-year easing cycle.

Article content

The minutes of Banco Central de Chile’s Oct. 28 rate hold may not break much new ground: the bank hasn’t yet arrived at the terminal rate of its easing cycle, and is in a data-dependent mode.

Article content

Article content

—With assistance from Brian Fowler, Monique Vanek, Robert Jameson, Laura Dhillon Kane, Mark Evans, Ros Krasny, Piotr Skolimowski, Tony Halpin and Beril Akman.

Article content