D-Street slips 1% to 11-month low, and it's not done falling yet

Synopsis

Indian stock markets plunged to an 11-month low on Thursday, with the Nifty and Sensex dropping around 1% each. Surging crude oil prices, driven by US-Iran conflict fears, spooked investors, mirroring past market downturns. Analysts warn of continued volatility and potential further declines until oil prices stabilize, though a rebound is possible in oversold conditions.

Mumbai: India's equity indices fell around 1% to their lowest in 11 months on Thursday, extending losses for the second consecutive session after crude oil prices surged due to supply disruptions amid the US-Iran war. Analysts said uncertainty over oil prices could continue to weigh on investor sentiment and lead to further declines.

The NSE Nifty finished at 23,639.15, down 227.70 points or 1%. The BSE Sensex ended at 76,034.42, down 829.29 points or 1.1%. Both indices ended at their lowest levels since April 2025.

Brent crude futures gained more than 5% to nearly $97 on Thursday. The prices had briefly crossed the $100 mark during the day.

"The Street has witnessed this previously during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, when markets tumbled by about 11%, and the Nifty has already dropped around 6% so far," said Pankaj Pandey, head of retail research at ICICI Securities. "If crude oil prices remain elevated, further declines cannot be ruled out."

Agencies

OIL FEEDS UNCERTAINTY: If Nifty fails to hold above 23,500, it can slip towards 23,200–23,000 range; Overselling after 2,000-pt correction from recent highs could lead to some rebound

Once the conflict subsides, markets typically return to a trajectory of double-digit gains, Pandey said.

Sectorally, the Nifty Auto index dropped 3.2%, and the Nifty FMCG index fell 1.8%, while Bank Nifty shed 1.1%. The Nifty Private Bank and Realty indices declined 1.6% each.

The Volatility Index (VIX) climbed 2.2% to 21.5, indicating that traders do not expect risks to recede in the near future.

"The markets are oversold after the 2,000-point correction from recent highs, so there is a possibility of some rebound," said Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president, research at Religare Broking.

However, until crude oil prices stabilise, investors should brace for further downside as the overall tone remains bearish and any gains could attract selling pressure, he said.

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