Crude oil surges 8% in a week to near $110 as Iran war tensions simmer again. Where are prices headed?

Oil prices flared up as much as 8% this week, ending Friday's session over 3% higher after remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran’s foreign minister weakened hopes of a near-term agreement to end ship attacks and seizures around the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday that Tehran has “no trust” in the United States and would engage in negotiations only if Washington showed seriousness. He added that Iran remains ready both for renewed conflict and for diplomatic solutions.

Crude oil price this week

Brent crude futures settled at $109.26 a barrel, rising $3.54 or 3.35%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended at $105.42 a barrel, up $4.25 or 4.2%. For the week, Brent advanced 7.84%, and WTI gained 10.48%, as uncertainty surrounding the fragile ceasefire in the Iran war continued to keep markets on edge.

Trump, meanwhile, said he was losing patience with Iran and had agreed with Chinese President Xi Jinping that Iran cannot be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and must reopen the Strait. Nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which serves as the main export route for Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Qatar.

The rhetoric between Washington and Tehran turned increasingly confrontational once again. Although the ceasefire remains in place, expectations of a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have diminished sharply.

Trump also concluded his visit to China. While Chinese President Xi Jinping did not publicly comment on discussions with Trump regarding Iran, China's foreign ministry issued a statement saying, “This conflict, which should never have happened, has no reason to continue.”

Among the outcomes the market had been watching for from the U.S.-China summit, Trump said China agreed that Iran can’t possess a nuclear weapon. Tensions also flared between the two when Xi said the US and China’s relation could be in great jeopardy if the Taiwan issue wasn’t resolved.

Where are prices headed?

Analysts at Morgan Stanley said the global oil market is now in “a race against time,” warning that the factors limiting a sharper rise in crude prices may weaken if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut into June.

Despite disruptions impacting nearly 1 billion barrels of oil supply, crude prices are still below the highs reached in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Analysts led by Martijn Rats said the market entered the current crisis with stronger supply buffers, while investors largely continue to believe the strait will eventually reopen.

Morgan Stanley added that higher U.S. crude exports and softer Chinese imports have so far helped shield the market from a deeper supply shock. However, the brokerage warned that a prolonged closure of Hormuz could once again tighten global supplies if disruptions continue beyond what either China or the United States can manage comfortably.

Haitong Futures said markets remain cautious and warned the ceasefire may only be temporary. The brokerage added that stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran could trigger another escalation, pushing oil prices even higher.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said Monday that disruptions to shipments through Hormuz could delay the return of stability to oil markets until 2027, potentially affecting around 100 million barrels of oil supply every week.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)