Crude Oil Above $100: Can Saudi Arabia’s export disruption trigger a new global energy shock?

The global crude oil market has entered a new phase of uncertainty after Saudi Arabia suspended crude loadings at its Red Sea port of Yanbu and cancelled some crude cargoes to Europe following drone attacks on its strategic East-West Pipeline. The development comes at a time when oil prices have already crossed the psychologically important $100-per-barrel level amid prolonged Middle East tensions. While markets had previously assumed that oil transportation routes would remain partially functional despite the regional conflict, the latest attack has exposed the vulnerability of alternative export routes and raised concerns about a potential supply crunch.

Why oil prices remained below $100 earlier and why the current situation is different

Since the outbreak of the broader Middle East conflict, crude oil prices have repeatedly spiked on fears of supply disruptions. However, prices mostly remained below $100 because traders believed a complete blockade of major oil transit routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz, was unlikely. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, which carries crude from eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, served as a crucial alternative route. The latest drone attacks have now disrupted that backup infrastructure, forcing the suspension of Yanbu loadings. Markets are no longer pricing merely a geopolitical risk premium; they are increasingly worried about an actual loss of export capacity and physical supply availability.

Saudi Arabia’s dominant role in the global oil market

Saudi Arabia remains the world's largest crude exporter and one of the few producers with meaningful spare production capacity. The kingdom traditionally exports between 6 and 7 million barrels per day and plays a central role in balancing global oil markets through OPEC+. The East-West Pipeline has become particularly important because it allows Saudi crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and reach global markets through the Red Sea. " When Saudi supply is threatened, there are limited options available to quickly compensate for lost volumes, resulting in sharp price volatility.

Why are the Houthis and their allies targeting energy infrastructure?

The attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure are part of a broader strategy aimed at increasing economic pressure on Saudi Arabia and its allies. Since maritime restrictions have already affected shipping routes in the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, attacking the East-West Pipeline further reduces Saudi Arabia's ability to bypass regional chokepoints. From a strategic perspective, energy infrastructure represents a high-value target because even temporary disruptions can influence global oil prices and attract international attention.

Status of other major oil exporting countries

The broader regional situation remains challenging for other major exporters as well. Iraq continues to face export constraints because much of its crude moves through the Persian Gulf. Kuwait remains heavily dependent on Gulf shipping lanes. Qatar's LNG exports have encountered logistical complications amid maritime security concerns. The UAE is relatively better positioned because of the Abu Dhabi-Fujairah pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz, although rising insurance and security costs have reduced export efficiency. While these countries continue to export crude, they are unable to fully offset a significant reduction in Saudi export volumes if the disruption persists for an extended period.

Will the World Face an Oil Shortage and Can Other Countries Replace Saudi Supply?

A severe global oil shortage is unlikely in the immediate term, as commercial inventories, strategic petroleum reserves, and alternative suppliers can provide a temporary buffer. However, the suspension of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline threatens up to 4 million barrels per day of exports, equivalent to nearly 4% of global oil demand, which could significantly tighten market balances if the disruption persists. While countries such as the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, and Russia can supply additional barrels, fully replacing Saudi crude is difficult because of differences in crude quality, refinery requirements, and limited spare production capacity.

Impact on India

India imports more than 80% of its crude oil requirements, making it highly sensitive to global price fluctuations. Saudi Arabia accounts for roughly 8-10% of India's crude imports, making the kingdom one of India's key suppliers. The immediate impact would likely be higher import costs rather than a physical supply shortage, as Indian refiners can diversify purchases toward Russia, Iraq, UAE and the United States. However, sustained prices above $100 would widen India's current account deficit, increase fuel inflation, pressure the rupee and raise costs across transportation and manufacturing sectors.

Price outlook and chances of a ceasefire

Oil prices are likely to remain highly volatile in the near term. If Saudi Arabia restores pipeline operations within a few weeks and regional security improves, Brent may retreat toward below $90 range. However, if disruptions persist and attacks continue, prices could test $115-$125 or more per barrel, especially if additional export infrastructure is affected. The probability of a ceasefire remains uncertain. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, but both military tensions and attacks on critical energy infrastructure suggest that markets will continue to price a substantial geopolitical risk premium into crude oil for the foreseeable future.

(The author is Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments )