In Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, the Dallas Cowboys are facing their in-state rivals, the Houston Texans. For both teams, despite being just four games into the season, this is looking like a must-win matchup.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys know they need to win this weekend, and the 0-3 Texans are already in dire straits. If they lose and drop to 0-4, they can probably kiss their playoff hopes goodbye.

But what about the Cowboys? They're 1-2, and the NFC East looks wide open; why is this a must-win already? ESPN's Todd Archer revealed why: franchise history suggests a loss this weekend would signal another missed postseason berth for Dallas.

Why Cowboys already face a must-win matchup in Week 4

"Since 2000, the Cowboys have opened the season with one win in their first four games four times (2025, 2020, 2010, 2000) and did not finish any of those seasons with a winning record," Archer writes.

If the Cowboys' recent franchise history is anything to go by, a loss on Sunday to the Texans to drop to 1-3 on the season after four weeks would effectively end their 2026 playoff hopes.

Obviously, with the Jaxson Dart injury for the New York Giants; the Jayden Daniels injury for the Washington Commanders; and the struggles from the Philadelphia Eagles' offense and defense to begin the year, the Cowboys won't be out of it at 1-3.

But they would certainly face an uphill battle to take the division lead. At 1-3, they already would have a lot less wiggle room the rest of the season.

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If they were to win and get to 2-2, the Cowboys could tie the NFC East lead after Week 4, and could have a clear path to winning the division over the Eagles, Giants and Commanders.

A loss to drop to 1-3 would suggest, based on the last quarter-century, that the Cowboys would not make the playoffs. Kenny Clark shared that "We need this win too, so we need to be more desperate," about this Week 4 matchup against the Texans.

While Houston's season might already hinge on what happens this weekend, the Cowboys could have a lot more at stake in Week 4 than it might seem.

Cowboys' franchise history, at least since 2000, would suggest a loss Sunday all but ends their playoff chances. Every year is different, but in this instance, the Cowboys could be in some serious trouble if they lose to the Texans this weekend.

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