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Copper rose to a three-week high after United States President Donald Trump and Iran signalled readiness to hold talks to end the war in the Middle East during a proposed two-week pause in hostilities, even as Israeli strikes on Lebanon threatened to derail the fragile truce.
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The industrial metal advanced 3.2 per cent to settle at US$12,709 a ton on the London Metal Exchange Wednesday as global markets rediscovered an appetite for risk. Aluminum, the base metal most directly affected by supply concerns during the Middle East conflict, fell 0.6 per cent.
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Sporadic fighting continued throughout the region, including Iranian strikes on Gulf states, and the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked. Trump has said that reopening the strait is a condition for halting the fighting. Further uncertainty surrounded whether the ceasefire includes Israel’s campaign in Lebanon, where the country is waging a parallel war against the Iran-aligned Hezbollah militia.
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Still risk appetite has rebounded, resulting in an increase in base metals positions on Wednesday, said Gao Yin, an analyst at Shuohe Asset Management Co. However, given the temporary nature of the ceasefire, metals markets will struggle to return to the liquidity-driven rally seen at the start of the year, she said.
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From a supply perspective, the ability of ships to transit Hormuz — the maritime choke point that links the Persian Gulf to global markets – is particularly important for aluminum. The region accounts for nearly a tenth of the world’s output of the metal, and shipments have been affected by the near-closure of the waterway as well as Iranian strikes on facilities run by Aluminium Bahrain BSC and Emirates Global Aluminium PJSC.
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Aluminum on the LME settled at $3,455 a ton. Other base metals on the LME were mixed.
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—With assistance from Annie Lee.
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