Connor McDavid free agency: How does Evan Bouchard's $42 million extension affect Oilers superstar's decision to leave or stay in Edmonton?

The Edmonton Oilers announced an extension for blue liner Evan Bouchard. However, one issue looms over the team: Connor McDavid will be entering the final year of his current contract.

All sorts of rumors have floated regarding McDavid’s impending departure to any number of contending teams.

The fact of the matter is that the Oilers are the team closest to the Stanley Cup without actually winning it. The team has been to back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals, coming up short both times against the Florida Panthers.

It would be foolish to think that McDavid would leave the Oilers for another contender next offseason. No other team could truly afford him and offer an opportunity to win a Cup. Moreover, Bouchard’s extension proves the Oilers are committed to winning. The team, and McDavid’s teammates, are prepared to do whatever they need to make another Cup run this upcoming season.

Lastly, McDavid’s connection to Edmonton and the local community makes it too hard for both sides to part ways without a significant reason.

Evan Bouchard’s contract extension is just another way the Oilers are proving to McDavid that the best place for him to win a Stanley Cup is in Alberta.

Connor McDavid’s extension wouldn’t cause a cap crunch for Edmonton Oilers

McDavid has fallen short of a Stanely Cup twice against the Florida Panthers - Source: Imagn

With Bouchard’s contract, the Oilers now have four players eating up nearly half of their salary cap allocation this upcoming season. Leon Draisaitl's new extension kicks in at $14 million AAV. Then, there’s Darnell Nurse at $9.5 million, and the final year of Connor McDavid’s current contract at $12.5 million AAV.

As it stands, that’s $46.5 million combined on four players, representing 48.7% of the club’s current salary cap allocation.

While that situation has justifiably alerted fans of an impending cap crunch, the reality is that Oilers fans should lose sleep over this situation. In particular, as it pertains to Connor McDavid's potential contract extension.

Some estimates suggest that Connor McDavid could get as much as $18 million AAV on the open market. That’s a fair assessment given McDavd’s skill level, production, and his age. Assuming that McDavid does sign for $18 million AAV, that would bring the Oilers' top four players to a total of $52 million for the 2026-27 season.

There’s a reason why the Oilers would be willing to sign Connor McDavid to such a hefty contract: The salary cap ceiling will be rising in the next two seasons. In 2026-27, the cap will increase to $104 million and $113.5 million in the 2027-28 season.

So, assuming the $52 million combined for McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, and Bouchard, that would be precisely 50% in 2026-27 and 44% in 2027-28.

It’s because of the rising cap that the Edmonton Oilers wouldn’t balk at signing McDavid for pretty much whatever he wanted.

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Edited by Nestor Quixtan