Commodity Radar: More records beckon for gold as Trump issues fresh tariff threat on EU. Check upside

Domestic gold rates hit a fresh lifetime high of Rs 1,45,500 per 10 gram on the MCX on Monday, taking cues from global prices after US President Donald Trump threatened European countries with fresh tariffs on goods if they opposed his planned takeover of Greenland.

The February gold futures jumped by Rs 3,000 or 2% over the Friday price even as the COMEX gold hit the $4,674.90 an ounce mark, surging by $79.50 or 1.73%.

After a hardly negotiated trade deal last year, Trump reignited sentiments with an explosive threat to place levies on nations that oppose his takeover bid of Greenland.

Trump on Saturday said he would put rising tariffs from February 1 on goods imported from EU members Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, along with Britain and Norway, until the US is allowed to buy Greenland, a step major EU states decried as blackmail.

On Sunday, European Union ambassadors reached broad agreement to intensify efforts to dissuade Trump from imposing those tariffs, while also readying a package of retaliatory measures should the duties go ahead, Reuters reported, quoting EU diplomats.

Gold begins the week on a firm note and the broader trend remains firmly bullish, though prices at elevated levels suggest that buying on intraday or positional dips remains the preferred strategy rather than chasing upside, Jateen Trivedi, Vice President - Research at LKP Securities said.

Moreover, persistent rupee volatility is keeping MCX gold relatively more volatile compared to COMEX, he said, adding that any renewed weakness in INR is likely to cushion downside risks and support domestic gold prices even during global pauses.

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5 technical triggers to watch out for:

1. Key support & resistance

Gold continues to hold a strong uptrend structure, trading well above its key short-to-medium-term averages. The immediate resistance is seen near Rs 1,46,000, followed by Rs 1,47,000, where some consolidation or profit booking cannot be ruled out. On the downside, Rs 1,43,000–Rs 1,43,500 emerges as a strong support zone, while Rs 1,40,000 remains the major trend-defining support on a closing basis. As long as prices hold above Rs 1,40,000, the bullish structure stays intact, Trivedi said.

2. Momentum indicators

RSI (14) is placed near 69, reflecting strong momentum while still staying just below extreme overbought levels. This indicates strength with scope for continuation after minor cooling-off phases.

3. Bollinger bands

Price is trading close to the upper Bollinger band, confirming trend strength. Bands remain moderately expanded, suggesting sustained volatility with a bullish bias. Any retracement towards the middle band is likely to attract fresh buying interest.

4. Moving averages

The EMA 8 continues to act as immediate dynamic support around Rs 1,42,500–Rs 1,43,000, while the EMA 21 near Rs 1,39,000–Rs 1,40,000 provides a strong positional base. The positive slope of both averages reinforces the continuation of the uptrend.

5. MACD

MACD remains in positive territory with the histogram holding above zero, indicating that bullish momentum is still intact despite minor consolidation phases.

Gold trading strategy

Trivedi suggests a buy-on-dip strategy, putting the buying zone at Rs 1,43,000–Rs 1,43,500. He places the stop loss below Rs 1,40,000 on the closing basis while estimating targets of Rs 1,46,000/Rs 1,47,000.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)