Commanders vs. Eagles odds, predictions: ‘TNF’ Same-Game Parlay, picks

Who would have thought that one of the NFC East’s most crucial matchups would take place between the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11?

It’s a testament to the Commanders’ resurgence with Jayden Daniels at the helm. 

However, this matchup will determine whether they can truly take the division.

So, with the stakes high, let’s dive into a Same-Game Parlay that can build a bankroll if the script plays out. All odds courtesy of DraftKings.

Leg 1: Eagles moneyline (-205)

The spread for this game held firm at 3.5 all week but bumped to four on Thursday, which tells me that the market is confident in the Eagles despite the Commanders appearing to be worthy challengers.

This is because the Eagles have the edge on both sides of the ball. 

Philadelphia’s offense has been at full strength during its five-game win streak, leading to elite production in every facet. The Eagles rank sixth in yards per rush and fourth in yards per pass.

Philadelphia looks to smash another NFC East foe this week. AP

That efficiency will be up against a Washington defense that has not been great at slowing down its opposition. The Commanders rank 28th in yards per rush allowed and 22nd in yards per pass allowed. 

The Eagles should be able to move the ball in any manner they choose. However, containing Daniels and slowing down the run game will seal the win for them.

Philadelphia matches up well with the Commanders on the ground, as it ranks fifth in rushing yards per game allowed, while Washington boasts the fourth-best ground game by that same statistic. 

We haven’t seen Daniels be as dynamic since injuring his rib three weeks ago, and if he’s contained on the ground, Philly can pull away here. 

Leg 2: DeVonta Smith 60+ Receiving Yards (+110)

While the Eagles have the highest rush rate in the NFL, we have seen them be explosive through the air. Their deadly duo at wide receiver is responsible for many of this offense’s big plays. 

Since A.J. Brown’s return to the lineup, we have seen him catch a touchdown in four straight games.

All this production should open things up for Devonta Smith, who’s had at least 60 yards receiving in six of eight games played this season. 

DeVonte Smith will take advantage of a Marshon Lattimore-less Washington defense. AP

Both he and Brown have excellent matchups against the Commanders secondary, according to PFF.

However, I doubt the Commanders will let Brown beat them deep, which leaves Smith to get open in single coverage. He’s seen 32 percent of the team’s Air Yards this season, so the opportunity will be there for the taking. 

Leg 3. DeVonta Smith Anytime Touchdown (+160)

Building off the last leg, Smith should find the endzone with such a great matchup in front of him. Last week, the Eagles threw the ball five times in the red zone, but none were to Smith.  

We should see the Eagles attack through the air again in the red zone, as Washington ranks 27th in touchdowns allowed to wide receivers per game.

Betting on the NFL?

• Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NFL
• Check out the best NFL betting sites
• Get the BetMGM Bonus Code

However, as we know, the vertical passing attack also makes Smith a scoring threat from well outside of the red zone. 

Smith has scored in 36 percent of games dating back to last season, putting his implied odds at +178. Given the matchup, these odds are within striking range and correlate to his big night. 

Same-Game Parlay picks: Devonta Smith 60+ receiving yards + Devonta Smith anytime TD scorer + Eagles moneyline (+475, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Doug Ziefel has been betting for more than a decade, and with U.S. operators in his native New Jersey since the market launched in 2018. He helps new bettors get the most out of their sportsbook promos and welcome offers for the New York Post.