In the modern NFL, "analytics" are all the rage. For most fans, this can simply boiled down to teams going for it on fourth down and attempting two-point conversions at a higher rate than they have in years past.
One team that has fully embraced the modern approach to high-leverage decision-making is the Washington Commanders.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels' diverse skill set allows offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to open up the playbook in short-yardage situations, so head coach Dan Quinn has been more than willing to test his luck on fourth down.
On 23 fourth-down conversion attempts during the regular season, Washington converted 20 of them. This 87-percent conversion rate led the league.
Quinn's willingness to get risky on fourth down has been on full display throughout the Commanders' playoff run. Through two playoff victories, Washington has attempted nine fourth-down conversions. Against the Buccaneers, they went 3-of-5 on fourth down. In their massive upset win over the Lions, Washington converted on three of four attempts.
Commanders 4th down conversions vs. Lions
If the Commanders were going to upset the Lions in Detroit, they were going to have to keep drives alive and convert them into points. In order to keep those drives going and find the end zone, Daniels needed to convert on several fourth downs.
Right out of the gates, Quinn showed that he wasn't afraid to be aggressive in this matchup. After the Commanders' opening drive stalled out on the Detroit 28-yard line, Quinn elected to go for it on 4th-and-1.
— NFL (@NFL) January 19, 2025On what appeared to be a QB sneak or potentially a fake sneak and pitch to Daniels, backup QB Marcus Mariota was swallowed up by the Detroit defensive line. After this debacle, Quinn realized he shouldn't get too cute on these plays. This would be Washington's only failed conversion of the evening.
Fast forward two drives and Daniels has led the Commanders deep into Detroit territory. After an incompletion on third down, Washington was staring at 4th-and-3 from the Detroit nine-yard line. Without much of a second thought, Quinn opted to go for it.
As loud as it’s been all night inside The Den , but it didn’t stop Daniels from finding Zak Ertz for a big conversion on 4th down pic.twitter.com/VyhsHavdTk
— Dan Leach (@DanLeachDTM) January 19, 2025Daniels connected with his reliable tight end, Zach Ertz for a massive conversion. Brian Robinson Jr. would go on to cap off the drive with a two-yard punch-in touchdown to put Washington up 10-7 early in the second quarter.
The next fourth-down conversion attempt wouldn't come until late in the third quarter. The Commanders found themselves in the red zone, facing a fourth-and-short once again. As we've seen throughout the year, Kingsbury kept the ball in the hands of his dynamic quarterback during one of the game's turning-point plays.
— NFL (@NFL) January 19, 2025Fellow rookie Terrion Arnold got caught with his eyes in the backfield, allowing Daniels to take the ball outside and pick up the first down with ease. Once again, this conversion led to a short touchdown from Robinson to extend Washington's lead to 10 points with 13:29 remaining in the game.
With the chance to start to close the door on Detroit, Daniels and company unsurprisingly remained on the field on 4th-and-2 midway through the fourth quarter. The Commanders found themselves in the red zone yet again with the opportunity to make it a three-score game with a touchdown.
Daniels did it himself last time, but he went to his No. 1 target, Terry McLaurin to pick this one up.
— NFL (@NFL) January 19, 2025You might be catching on to the trend at this point, but this drive ended with yet another short rushing touchdown. It was Jeremy McNichols who had the honors this time. His score put Washington up 17 points and sent Detroit into desperation mode.
The Washington offense converted in every crucial situation and Detroit never really had an answer. For a second straight game, the guts of Quinn and the execution of Daniels are the key storylines as the Commanders' Cinderella run continues.