College football's 10 bold predictions for season's second half: Playoff carnage and high-profile divorces

Expect the Big 12 to grab multiple bids, UCLA to stage a Cinderella run to a home game and Bryce Underwood to seek a fresh start outside Ann Arbor

Oct 19, 2026 at 8:59 am ET • 9 min read

Here's some advice entering college football's second half of the season: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/revisiting-2026-preseason-college-football-predictions-10-things-we-were-dead-wrong-about/ ago and erase it from memory.

This is the year of parity within the top 25 in what is likely the final frontier for the 12-team playoff era. Enjoy the current structure while it lasts, because we're soon doubling the number of teams invited to the dance and side-stepping potential narrative-setting outcomes in October for heavyweights simply gearing up for the stretch run.

Across the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC, the playoff picture is coming into focus ahead of the selection committee's first rankings in two weeks. The Group of Six race has spiked interest too, with five programs still with a legitimate path at getting the guaranteed bid. 

Like all bold predictions, we're calling our shots as the second half begins. These 10 proclamations cover conference races, postseason dilemmas and individuals within the sport we're expecting to define November. 

10. Prepare for multiple playoff bids in Big 12

And commissioner Brett Yormark has BYU to thank for that. Saturday's last-second win over previously second-ranked Notre Dame was the Cougars first over a top-10 opponent since 2018 and kept the Big 12 at three unbeatens at midseason -- the most of any Power Four conference.

BYU, Texas Tech and Utah are all situated inside the top-15. Houston's damn good, too. Unless Arizona thwarts the Red Raiders on Oct.  31 in Lubbock or hands Utah a loss on Nov. 14, it feels like the BYU-Utah showdown next month will have significant CFP implications. Neither the Cougars or Utes play Texas Tech during the regular season, so we could have a three-team situation unfolding in the CFP discussion.

What happens if ...

• Utah finishes 13-0 as Big 12 champion
• BYU's only loss (11-1) is to Utah
• Texas Tech's only loss (12-1) is to Utah

The CFP selection committee will have a mutiny on it hands if they put a nine-win SEC or Big Ten team above BYU or a 12-win Texas Tech. This league will sort itself out over the next six weeks, but rest assured, there's going to be a second Big 12 CFP entry beyond the league's champion if there's a one-loss finisher.

9. Bob Chesney earns national coach of the year honor

One of five Power Four unbeatens at midseason, UCLA is the unlikeliest of the group under its first-year coach. The Bruins squashed Oregon on the road a few weeks ago with the rest of the campaign being the survive-and-advance mentality. Chesney's preseason win total was set at 6.5 by oddsmakers and a win Saturday against Michigan State would eclipse that that with five games left. 

UCLA has taken his defense-first mentality to heart and is one of the better-coached teams in the nation. We're picking this team to finish 11-1 overall and earn a first-round home game in the CFP despite losing its starting quarterback to injury in early October. That's notable. Also worthy of mention who could potentially stiff-arm Chesney for the award? Kentucky's Will Stein.

8. New Mexico notches rare takeaway feat

No team in the FBS has forced as many turnovers (21) as the Lobos this season and they're just getting started. We're projecting New Mexico to appear in and win the Mountain West Championship Game before a 14th contest comes during bowl season. There's a realistic shot at getting to the 40-plus takeaway mark for the campaign, which would be the first time that's been accomplished since Louisiana Tech recorded 42 in 2014.

Turnovers galore

And as far as CFP hopes are concerned, New Mexico running the table under Jason Eck as Mountain West champs would put the Lobos in the thick of the Group of Six picture with JMU, Boise State and Oregon State.

7. Bryce Underwood, Michigan mutually part ways

This would have been bold in August, but really it's hardly bold nwo. 

Two interceptions, 80 yards of offense, no points and a colorful reaction coming off the sideline late in the second quarter: Underwood's first-half performance against Penn State in Week 7 looked a lot like the rest of his sophomore season -- lots of inconsistency, few big plays. The former five-star is out of sorts in Jason Beck's scheme and there's no clear answers to fix his struggles other than a change of scenery next fall. Freshman Tommy Carr is the better option to execute what the Wolverines want to do offensively, but it took too long for Kyle Whittingham and staff to figure that out this season.

"I supported it," Whittingham said of his staff's decision go with Carr for the second half against the Nittany Lions. "I'm not gonna say I was against it but they said, 'Hey, thinking about making changes.' Whatever we gotta do. I think that the timing was probably about as good as it could have been.

"People say, 'Well you should have gone to Tommy sooner.' No, I don't think so. I think that how this has unfolded has given Bryce an opportunity to prove himself and, again, I'm not sitting here making a decision going forward who it's gonna be because it was not just Bryce Underwood in the first half that wasn't playing at the top of their game."

If he enters the transfer portal, Underwood will be a coveted option for a Power Four contender who believes his best season is ahead of him in 2027. He'll come with a hefty price tag, however, and quite a bit of risk. 

6. Five SEC teams finish with 9-3 records 

We've gone over this before, but moving to a 9-game conference schedule in a 12-team playoff was a futile move for the SEC in a 12-team CFP era. The league's too competitive this season and is eating itself from within. We've seen top-ranked teams lose to unranked competition at home over consecutive weeks and there's more on the way. 

After scribbling out various scenarios for potential nine-win finishers, there's actually a path to seven SEC teams finishing with the same regular-season record prior to conference title weekend. For now, five 9-3s feels more likely.

• Alabama (5-2): Beats Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn; loses to LSU
• Florida (5-2): Beats Oklahoma, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State; loses to Georgia
• Kentucky (6-1): Beats Vanderbilt, Florida and Louisville; loses to Tennessee and Missouri
• LSU (5-2): Beats Auburn, Alabama, Texas and Arkansas; loses to Tennesee
• Tennessee (6-1): Beats Kentucky, LSU and Vanderbilt; loses to South Carolina and Texas A&M

If this is headache-inducing to you trying to sort through this carnage, imagine how the league office feels right now at midseason when tiebreaker scenarios are brought up. I do not have Texas among these 9-3 teams. More on them later. 

5. Notre Dame reaches CFP despite two losses

Commence outrage as the last team in.

Everyone's pointing to the Fighting Irish's upcoming game against unbeaten Miami on Nov. 7 as a must-win following their loss to BYU. However, there's another potential top-15 opportunity on the horizon two weeks later that might be enough to Notre Dame into the bracket with the last-team-in designation.

Notre Dame hosts SMU in late November and there's a solid chance the Mustangs come into that one 9-1 on a seven-game winning streak if they get past Wake Forest on Nov. 14. From there, all Notre Dame has to do is finish inside the selection committee's top 12, given this season's CFP assurance. As long as the Fighting Irish get to 10 wins, they're getting in this time around.

4. Rhett Lashlee unhappy after ACC Championship Game

Speaking of. SMU's fifth-year coach will be politicking for the Mustangs very soon when his program enters the league title matchup with Miami in December with two losses (Louisville and Notre Dame). A third setback -- this time against the Hurricanes in the finale -- leaves SMU in the at-large CFP discussion without a leg to stand on at 10-3 overall with the lone ranked win coming against Wake Forest on Nov. 14. Would an invite to the Pop-Tarts Bowl suffice as a worthy consolation prize? 

Lashlee sounded off in July about his "very competitive" league and argued for multiple CFP entries after Miami was the only selection in 2025. Unfortunately, that's going to happen again. I predicted over the summer that the winner of the Louisville-SMU matchup would have the best shot at being the ACC's second playoff team this season. Ironically, that'll be the loss that dooms the Mustangs.

3. Jesse Legree for president, Oregon State wins Pac-12

Tied for fourth in the latest Heisman odds at +1600, the Beavers' electrifying freshman playmaker has better numbers than Jeremiah Smith -- 46 catches for 1,040 yards and 14 touchdowns through seven games -- and gives Oregon State a legitimate crack at winning out and taking the Pac-12 this season.

Oregon State earned the No. 12 seed in this week's updated CFP projection ahead of Boise State and a potential unbeaten JMU. That could be the predicament for selection committee in December. Are the Beavers, at 11-2 overall, more attractive than the 13-0 Dukes? Neither squad would have a nationally-ranked win (unless Boise State hangs around the top 25), but Oregon State's strength of schedule is advantages, comparatively.

Legree will get to New York as a Heisman finalist alongside Smith, Miami's Darian Mensah and Trinidad Chambliss from Ole Miss, but the question is would winning out after losses to Houston and Texas Tech early be enough to push Oregon State to the CFP bracket?

2. Miami's Malachi Toney shatters own records

After setting single-season program records as a freshman for receptions (109) and receiving yards, the Hurricanes' top playmaker is on pace to have another historic campaign in the ACC. In case he has slipped under the radar for the nation's top-ranked team against the likes of Smith and Legree, Toney reinserted himself into the Heisman discussion after his 11-catch, 154-yard outburst against Florida State. He now has 50 catches for 785 yards and eight touchdowns through six games with plenty of additional opportunities on the table.

If Toney stays healthy and plays the rest of the regular season, makes an appearance in the ACC Championships and makes at least one playoff start, his current season averages stretched over eight more games would equate to 116 receptions, 1,768 yards and 16 scores. Unstoppable production.  

1. Texas moves on from Steve Sarkisian after 8-4 finish

On top of the world after a spirited fourth-quarter comeback against then No. 1 Ohio State in September, time could be running out for a veteran coach who has lost consecutive games in the SEC as a favorite with no explanation for his team's ineptitude on his side of the football. 

Equipped with one of college football's few rosters that exceeds $40 million, Sarkisian has to deliver down the stretch or the money in Austin will have an appetite for change. Texas has been ranked No. 1 in three consecutive seasons now, fans are exasperated at yet another 5-star QB and high-priced roster gone to waste, and Sarkisian's edgy antics -- screaming at Holly Rowe, making defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski last seaon's scapegoat, refusing to pass the controller on offense -- are growing old.