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Think about how much a botched extra point and an up-for-grabs pass altered the entire College Football Playoff picture for the rest of the season.
Especially when it comes to the Big Ten and SEC.
No. 8 Notre Dame took a 40-34 lead on No. 16 Texas A&M with 2:53 remaining at Notre Dame Stadium. A dropped hold, however, gave the Aggies an opening. Marcel Reed took advantage with an 11-yard TD pass on fourth-and-goal with 13 seconds left. Texas A&M won 41-40.
Now, the Irish – which made the College Football Playoff championship game under Marcus Freeman last year – are 0-2 and likely out of this year's CFP barring a miracle. Sure, Notre Dame could go 10-2 and run the table, but there is not a ranked team left on the schedule. Maybe USC or Navy will work into the AP Top 25 by the time those matchups materialize. It still might not be enough – not without a conference championship game.
Remember how we propped Indiana's one-loss resume against those SEC three-loss contenders last season? Notre Dame won't have that luxury this year with two losses – not after a loss to the Aggies, one of those many fringe contenders from the SEC.
The SEC and Big Ten will rejoice now. Both conferences stand to get four teams in the College Football Playoff in the 12-team setup with the Irish all but out of the way.
It's a lot to think about.
Notre Dame isn't the only team in our College Football Playoff braceketology who got knocked out. Here is a look at the top four teams, the projected first-round matchups and the teams on the college football playoff bubble heading into Week 4:
Dropped out: Clemson, Notre Dame, South Carolina
Moved in: Florida State, Illinois, Oklahoma
MORE: SEC overreactions - Georgia owns Tennessee, Marcel Reed for Heisman
Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (3-0, Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes broke open a one-score game with Ohio with explosive plays in the passing game from Jeremiah Smith (9-153, TD) ,who added a 17-yard TD run on a reverse to his highlight-reel in a 37-9 victory. Bo Jackson (9-109) highlighted a rushing attack that totaled 225 yards, and Julian Sayin (25 of 32, 342 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs) has a 78.9% completion through three games. The Buckeyes look the part of a complete team heading into a bye week.
No. 2 Georgia (3-0, SEC champion)
The Bulldogs notched a crucial 44-41 overtime victory against No. 15 Tennessee at Neyland Stadium, one in which Georgia rallied from a 21-7 first-quarter deficit. Gunner Stockton (23 of 31, 304 yards, 2 TDs) threw a clutch fourth-quarter TD to London Humphreys, and the Bulldogs won in overtime. Kirby Smart is now 9-1 against the Volunteers.
MORE: How much will UT regret loss in SEC, CFP races?
No. 3 Penn State (3-0, Big Ten at-large)
The Nittany Lions routed Villanova 52-6 and outscored a light non-conference schedule by a combined total of 132-17 the last three weeks. Kaytron Allen (10-86, TD) and Nick Singleton (20-84, 2 TDs) continue to flex as one of college football's best tag-team running games – and Penn State has a bye week to prepare for the “Whiteout" against Oregon in a rematch of last year's Big Ten championship game. It's another chance for James Franklin to beat a top-10 opponent.
No. 4 LSU (3-0, SEC at-large)
The Tigers had five interceptions in a 20-10 victory against Florida that kept a strong start under Brian Kelly going. Garrett Nussmeier (27 of 47, 260 yards, TD) received run support from Caden Durham (21-95). LSU plays Southeast Louisiana in Week 4 before the rest of the SEC schedule, which features five ranked opponents. There is a long way to go, but this might be Kelly's best shot at a national championship after all.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
A look at Sporting News projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Week 4 of the college football season:
No. 12 Tulane (3-0, American champion) at No. 5 Oregon (3-0, Big Ten champion)
South Florida lost, so Tulane moved in after a 34-27 victory against Duke and former Green Wave quarterback Darian Mensah. Tulane has victories against two Power 4 schools heading into a Week 4 matchup against Ole Miss. Oregon weathered the two time-zone trip to Northwestern in a 34-14 victory. Dante Moore is 50 of 64 (78.1%) with seven TDs and no interceptions through three starts. The Ducks face Oregon State in Week 4.
No. 11 Iowa State (4-0, Big 12 champion) vs. No. 6 Miami, Fla. (3-0, ACC champion)
Miami did not fall for the South Florida trap in a weather-delayed game. Carson Beck (23 of 28, 340 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs) engineered a 49-12 blowout where the Hurricanes totaled 576 yards. Miami is the ACC front-runner now, and coach Mario Cristobal has a tough team in the trenches on both sides. Iowa State had trouble shaking off Arkansas State in a 24-16 road victory, but Carson Hansen (18-116) had his first 100-yard game. Matt Campbell led the Cyclones to a strong September, and Iowa State needs a well-timed bye week. The Big 12 looks like a one-bid league.
No. 10 Oklahoma (3-0, SEC at-large) vs. No. 7 Florida State (2-0, ACC at-large)
The Sooners showed no hangover signs in a 42-3 blowout against Temple. John Mateer (20 of 34, 282 yards, TD, INT) added 63 yards and a TD. Tory Blaylock (14-100, 2 TDs) helped Oklahoma pile up 287 rushing yards, and the Sooners have allowed 6.3 points per game through three games. Florida State had a bye week in Week 3, but the Seminoles are in the mix for that second ACC berth along with Georgia Tech. Florida State plays Kent State and Virginia the next two weeks before a blockbuster matchup against Miami on Oct. 4. It's about time we had one of those.
No. 9 Illinois (3-0, Big Ten at-large) vs. No. 8 Texas (1-1, Big 12 at-large)
The Illini's time is here. Illinois limited Western Michigan to 203 total yards in a 38-0 shutout, and Luke Altmyer (17 of 26, 196 yards, 2 TDs) continued his hyper-efficient play under coach Bret Bielema. Kaden Feagin (20-100, TD) supplied the ground support. Now, Illinois meets No. 22 Indiana in a huge early-season matchup between Big Ten playoff hopefuls. This is why we love the 12-team era. Texas slips a bit here after an under-whelming 27-10 victory against UTEP that will lead to more questions about Arch Manning (11 of 25, 114 yards, TD, INT), who struggled again. The Longhorns have an elite defense, but Manning will need to be better in the SEC grind. Texas plays UTEP in Week 4.
Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
Texas A&M (3-0)
Reed (17 of 37, 360 yards, 2 TDs, INT) will generate some Heisman Trophy hype, and the Aggies have scored 40-plus points in each of their first three games. That is going to give Texas A&M a bump in the SEC pile-up, and there is a bye week before the Sept. 27 matchup against Auburn.
Georgia Tech (3-0)
The Yellow Jackets are more than a giant killer. Georgia Tech gutted out a 24-21 victory against No. 12 Clemson, and Haynes King (20 of 28, 211 yards) had 103 rushing yards and a TD, and Aidan Birr's 55-yard field goal touched off a wild celebration in Atlanta. Brent Key has a team that is a real threat to win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff now – and that would be a feel-great story.
TROCCHI: The Brent Key-Haynes King relationship fuels Georgia Tech
Ole Miss (3-0)
The Rebels came up with a clutch turnover late in a 41-35 shootout with Arkansas, and Ferris State transfer quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (21 of 29, 353 yards, TD) added 62 rushing yards and two TDS in place of Austin Simmons (ankle). Chambliss might have made a play for the starting job with that performance in a victory that kept Ole Miss on the playoff fringe.
Utah (3-0)
The Utes led 3-0 at halftime against Wyoming before getting on track in the second half. Devon Dampier (27 of 41, 230 yards, 2 TDs) added 86 rushing yards, and long-time coach Kyle Whittingham typically does well with a tough defense. The Utes out-gained the Cowboys 541-229. A home matchup with Texas Tech in Week 4 is the highlight of the Big 12 schedule.
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