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Not sure who is going to win the national title this year in college football? You’re not alone.
So instead of hunting for value on a single team, why not buy in bulk and bet on the Big Ten to produce the national champion (+110, DraftKings)?
Current playoff projections from The Athletic, ESPN, CBS and Kelley Ford include four Big Ten teams in the bracket. Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State are well-positioned to make the 12-team field.
And it’s likely that two of the three at-large bids received by the Big Ten would come with a home playoff game.
A plausible scenario exists in which the Big Ten finishes with four teams in the CFP committee’s top eight.
If the remaining games break according to Vegas odds, Ohio State will avenge its lone loss of the season in the Big Ten title game, providing the Buckeyes (would be 12-1) with a first-round bye in the playoff.
If chalk prevails, that also means that Indiana (11-1), Oregon (12-1) and Penn State (11-1) would likely be rewarded with home playoff games.
In that ideal scenario, grabbing those four teams at plus-money to win the CFP would be a steal.
Assuming Oregon and Ohio State handle their business in the regular season, it’s also important to note that a Buckeyes win over the Ducks would create an ideal seeding scenario for this future. Ohio State would secure the No. 1 overall seed and Oregon’s consolation prize would be the highest at-large bid at No. 5 overall.
Ohio State seems poised to the No. 1 or No. 5 seed in the CFP. Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn ImagesThe College Football Playoff does not reseed, which means Oregon and Ohio State would be on a collision course for a third meeting in the national semifinals to be played at the Orange or Cotton Bowl.
If that comes to pass, we’d have one team in the national title game, with the hopes of Indiana or Penn State sparking upsets on the other side of the bracket.
But enough hypothetical talk, let’s get into these teams’ DNA. The Buckeyes, Ducks, Hoosiers and Nittany Lions each bring something special to the table on the defensive side of the ball.
Ohio State leads the country in quality drives allowed while clamping opposing passing attacks with air-tight coverage (seventh).
Oregon is even better against the pass, sticking with receivers (fourth in coverage) and harassing quarterbacks (sixth in pass rush).
Penn State should make the 12-team field. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters ConIndiana has been a brick wall against the run, ranking top seven in rushing success rate, line yards and stuff rate.
And Penn State, not to be outdone, is 10th in defensive havoc and top three in both line yards and stuff rate when facing opposing rushing attacks.
If these defenses hold up against elite competition, do they have the offensive firepower to go on a run in the CFP?
In the case of Oregon and Ohio State, absolutely. The Ducks have Dillon Gabriel, who has saved his best for the Ducks’ biggest tests.
He accounted for seven total touchdowns against just one turnover when facing Ohio State and Illinois this season.
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While Oregon has been methodical in the best way possible, Ohio State has been explosive, ranking fourth in the “big play” metric.
Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke is second in QBR and their aerial attack leads the nation in success rate.
And finally, Penn State has been ruthlessly efficient in nearly every category: Havoc allowed, success rate, big-play rate and third-down conversion percentage.
Can they prove that the Ohio State game was a fluke? When bundled with these three other teams, I’m willing to roll the dice that Penn State exceeds expectations for a change under James Franklin.
BET: Big Ten team to win national title (+110, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.
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