Clemson or Iowa? How to pick 8 vs. 9 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket

As March Madness tips off, the 8 vs. 9 matchups are expected to be the most difficult to pick.

In the South region, Clemson and Iowa draw each other, both coming off up-and-down seasons. While Clemson has been a consistent presence in the ACC, Iowa is in the first year of a new regime, as Ben McCollum had a strong debut as the Hawkeyes head coach.

The 8 vs. 9 games can frequently see the lower seeds as the favorites, and that appears to be the case in this one. While Clemson is ranked higher as a No. 8 seed, Iowa enters the tournament with a lot going its way to potentially win this first-round matchup.

Here's what you need to know about this matchup.

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Clemson vs. Iowa odds

Iowa opened as a slight -1.5 point betting favorite against Clemson, according to DraftKings. 

• Odds: Iowa -1.5
• Date: March 20, 2026
• Time: TBD
• TV: TBD
• Arena: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida

Clemson (24-10, 12-6 in ACC)

Clemson lost a significant amount of talent from last season’s squad but returned to the NCAA Tournament in spite of a few late-season bumps. The Tigers looked like they had mastered the art of winning on the road early in ACC play, but they dropped five of their last seven regular season games to come back down to Earth.

The question entering the big dance is whether Clemson more closely resembles the team that beat Louisville on Feb. 28 or barely survived last-place Georgia Tech in the regular season finale. Clemson also suffered a major loss in the ACC Tournament, with center Carter Welling tearing his ACL. The 6-11 Welling averaged 10.4 points per game and is out for the remainder of the season.

Defense is where Clemson is going to have to win big if it wants to advance in the tournament. Nothing about this team stands out offensively. The Tigers average less than 75 points per game and only have two double-digit scorers. They are a pedestrian 3-point shooting team, and Dillon Hunter is as close as they get to a true point guard. Depth is on Clemson’s side, though. The Tigers don’t rely heavily on any particular player, reducing the volatility of this team and Brad Brownell can pretty easily go eight deep with his rotation.

Opponents are shooting under 32 percent from deep against Clemson and barely more than 41 percent from the field, a top-45 mark in the nation. The Tigers have only allowed 80 or more points four times this season, and two of those games went to overtime. That’s a pretty remarkable track record for Brownell’s defense. 

Clemson isn’t going to win a shootout, but its defense doesn’t allow for many shootouts. After a late-season slide, however, it’s worth wondering whether the Tigers have the high-level offensive talent to be successful in the NCAA Tournament.

• NET ranking: 34th
• KenPom ranking: 36th
• Quad 1 record: 6-6
• Quad 2 record: 7-4
• Quad 3 record: 4-0
• Quad 4 record: 7-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 71st
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 20th

Key players

RJ Godfrey, F, Sr. (6-7, 225): 11.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.6 apg

Nick Davidson, F, Sr. (6-8, 220): 9.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.1 apg

Dillon Hunter, G, Sr. (6-3, 193): 7.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.0 apg

Jestin Porter, G, Sr. (6-1, 180): 9.6 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.2 spg

Jake Wahlin, F, Jr. (6-10, 204): 5.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.7 apg

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year

Iowa (21-12, 10-10 in Big Ten)

It’s mission accomplished for Ben McCollum in year one as Iowa’s head coach. The Hawkeyes are back in the NCAA Tournament in their first year out of the Fran McCaffery era, a nice step for the former Drake coach and his son, who stars for this team.

McCollum has clearly left his imprint on the Hawkeyes. After years of a high-octane offense under McCaffery, Iowa is dead last in pace out of 365 Division I teams, slowing the game down just as Drake did under McCollum. That pace took Missouri out of a rhythm in the NCAA Tournament last year and helped Drake come away with a win, but it’s worth wondering whether Iowa has the personnel to advance in this year’s tournament.

Stirtz can keep Iowa in games on his own, excelling as a scorer, passer and leader. The rest of the roster has struggled to keep up. There aren’t many shooters around Stirtz. Cam Manyawu and Alvaro Folgueiras bring some size, but they haven’t taken a leap offensively since coming over from Drake and Robert Morris, respectively. Last year’s Drake team had shooters in Mitch Mascari and Daniel Abreu, but scoring has been even harder to come by this season.

Iowa is going to play sound defense and get some scoring opportunities near the rim. If Stirtz plays like a hero, there is a chance for a little more McCollum magic in the big dance, particularly if the Hawkeyes’ pace can mess with an opponent’s rhythm. After a recent loss to Penn State, however, it’s worth wondering whether this Iowa team is capable of going on a run against tougher competition. 

• NET ranking: 26th
• KenPom ranking: 25th
• Quad 1 record: 4-9
• Quad 2 record: 5-1
• Quad 3 record: 6-2
• Quad 4 record: 6-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 31st
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 31st

Key players

Bennett Stirtz, G, Sr. (6-4, 180): 20.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.5 apg

Tavion Banks, G, Sr. (6-7, 200): 10.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.2 apg

Cam Manyawu, F, Jr. (6-9, 228): 7.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.0 apg

Alvaro Folgueiras, F, Jr. (6-9, 215): 8.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.3 apg

Cooper Koch, F, So. (6-8, 215): 7.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.1 apg

Clemson vs. Iowa prediction

This 8 vs. 9 matchup is an interesting battle between a defensive-minded team and a an all-around solid team.

Clemson is a top defensive team, as Brad Brownell's team has put together another stout team on that end of the floor. However, the Tigers don't have a lot of offensive firepower, as Clemson doesn't have a player avereging at least 12 points per game on the year, and that includes Carter Welling, who is out for the year.

Iowa, on the other hand, has the best player on the floor in Bennett Stirtz, which should be the difference in this game. Stirtz has averaged 20 points per game this year and has big-game experience after winning a game in the NCAA Tournament last year with Drake.

Ultimately, this game will come down to how much Clemson can contain Stirtz's offense. The Hawkeyes, therefore, should be able to take this one on the back of Stirtz and a defense that can handle Clemson's underwhelming offense.

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

History of 8 vs. 9 upsets in NCAA tournament