‘City-killer’ asteroid now likely to miss Earth but may be on crash course with the moon

A “city killer” asteroid experts feared was on a crash course with Earth is now expected to miss the planet — but it still has a chance of smashing into the moon.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, first detected in December 2024 and believed to have a 3% chance of hitting the Earth in 2032, now has a near-zero chance of striking Earth, NASA wrote in an update Wednesday.

When concerns about the asteroid — which scientists previously cautioned could be a “city killer” — were at an all-time high earlier this year, astronomer Andrew Rivkin conducted a five-hour observation of the space rock and found it may make impact elsewhere: the moon.

The football field-sized asteroid’s odds of striking the moon on Dec. 22, 2032, jumped from 1.7% in late February to 3.8% based on data collected using the James Webb Space Telescope.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 will likely spare Earth, but still has a chance of hitting the Moon. MetaBallStudios / SWNS

While there’s still a 96.2% chance the asteroid will miss the satellite completely — if it were to make impact, it wouldn’t alter the moon’s orbit, according to experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies.

Previous reports also were off about the asteroid’s size, claiming it would have a diameter between 40 and 90 meters, however, Rivkin’s study determined a more exact measurement of 60 meters, give or take 7 meters, according to a report in the New Scientist.

The asteroid now has a bigger chance of hitting the moon, scientists said. NASA / SWNS

Now that the asteroid will likely steer clear of Earth, astronomers are gearing up for the possibility of it crashing into the moon — providing an unprecedented opportunity to study the massive crater it would create.

“Part of our motivation to continue observing this asteroid specifically is to figure out, is that number gonna go up or is it also going to go to zero,” says Rivkin. “But a 2 percent chance of hitting means a 98 percent chance of not hitting. If you were in a casino, you’d be crazy to take that bet.”

Scientists will study the asteroid with the Webb telescope, which can track and maintain data of far-off faint objects, again in May, before the giant space rock disappears into the outer solar system for the next several years.