Citi DC Open 2025 Final: Alex de Minaur vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (7) Alex de Minaur vs (12) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Date: July 27, 2025

Tournament: Mubadala Citi DC Open

Round: Finals

Venue: William H.G. Fitzgerald Tennis Center, Washington, USA

Category: ATP 500

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $2,396,115

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Alex de Minaur vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina preview

In the final of the Mudabala Citi DC Open 2025, seventh seed Alex de Minaur is set to go up against 12th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on Sunday.

De Minaur got off to a flying start in 2025, with a quarterfinals finish in the Australian Open. In his home Grand Slam, he cruised past Botic van de Zandschulp, Tristan Boyer, Francisco Cerundo, and Alex Michelsen, dropping merely one set. However, his sensational run came to an end after suffering a 3-6, 2-6, 1-6 loss against Novak Djokovic.

De Minaur's impressive run continued in the subsequent tournament, defeating the likes of David Goffin, Jakub Mensik, Daniel Altmaier, and Mattia Bellucci en route to the finals in Rotterdam. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to get his hands on the winner’s trophy, falling to #1 seed Carlos Alcaraz 4-6, 6-3, 2-6.

After a quarterfinal appearance at the Qatar Open, De Minaur had a series of forgettable performances. He surprisingly bowed out of the opening round in Dubai, losing 2-6, 6-3, 3-6 against Marin Cilic.

Within two weeks, the 26-year-old sustained back-to-back Round of 16 losses in the Indian Wells Masters and Miami Open to Francisco Cerundolo and Matteo Berrettini, respectively.

At Washington, De Minaur has only been pushed to the deciding set once, in the second round against Jiri Lehekcha. Otherwise, he has had no problem in reaching his 19th ATP Tour-level finals, overcoming Yunchaokete Bu, Brandon Nakashima, and Corentin Moutet.

Davidovich Fokina, on the other hand, suffered a 6-3, 6-3 loss against Sebastian Korda in the second round of the Adelaide International to begin his season. However, he proceeded to put the tennis world on notice with his performance at the Australian Open.

In the second and third rounds of the Grand Slam, the Spaniard came back from two sets down to claim dramatic five-set victories over Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jakub Mensik, respectively.

It didn’t take long for Fokina to reach his first final of 2025, defeating the likes of Mackenzie McDonald, Taylor Fritz, and Matteo Arnaldi in Delray Beach. However, Mimor Kecmanovic got the better of him in the championship match.

Fokina did not post any noteworthy results on the hard court ever since, till Washington. Coming off a first-round loss against James Duckworth in Los Cabos, not many analysts and fans backed him to make a deep run in the ongoing ATP 500 event. However, Fokina has silenced the doubters with wins over Learner Tien, Fritz, and Ben Shelton.

Alex de Minaur vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina head-to-head

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina leads the head-to-head 3-2.

Alex de Minaur vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina odds

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

Alex de Minaur vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction

Both players have shown stronger form on hard courts compared to their overall season performance, but De Minaur holds a slight edge heading into this matchup. He’s posted a higher win rate on the surface and leads in several key serving stats, including points won on both his first and second serve and averaging more aces per match.

Meanwhile, it won’t be a walk in the park. Davidovich Fokina has been on a tear over the past week, especially considering the tough opponents he’s had to face. His current form makes him a serious threat.

Prediction: De Minaur to win in three sets.

Edited by Hitesh Nigam