China Vows to Hit Carbon Peak Even With Wary New Climate Plan

lut4on3f)jc[p4eu04h]x8}a_media_dl_1.png European Commission, Joint Rese

Article content

(Bloomberg) — China, the world’s top polluter, set a cautious new five-year climate target, frustrating hopes for tighter policy that would drive the nation to peak carbon emissions well before President Xi Jinping’s 2030 deadline.

Article content

A new goal pledges to cut carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 17% by the end of the decade, and compares to a previous objective to deliver an 18% reduction in the five years through 2025 — which annual reports said was narrowly missed.

Article content

Article content

Article content

“We will actively yet prudently work toward peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality,” Premier Li Qiang said Thursday at the National People’s Congress, the once-a-year gathering of policymakers which set a modest new growth target and acknowledged rising geopolitical risks. China will balance “economic and social development, the green and low-carbon transition, and national energy security,” Li said.

Article content

Article content

Officials held back from a strict limit for the nation’s emissions and dashed expectations that target years would be set to top out consumption of coal and oil. The cautious strategy reflects China’s recent tone on climate action that is prioritizing the development of green industries, rather than aggressive emissions curbs. 

Article content

Xi’s goal to reach a carbon peak before 2030 will be “accomplished as planned,” and a system of controlling the total volume of emissions — in addition to intensity targets — will also be implemented, according to Li’s annual work report. 

Article content

China’s approach is to “scale up clean energy and clean-tech industries, relying on falling costs and increasing supply of clean energy to drive down emissions, rather than focusing on strong measurable emission targets,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst for the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, or CREA.

Article content

Article content

Action over the next five years will be crucial in determining whether China meets Xi’s carbon emissions deadline and gets on track to hit net zero by 2060. How quickly and aggressively the country can begin to reduce its outsized climate footprint is also critical to the world’s prospects of limiting the impacts of global warming. 

Article content

China accounted for about 29% of greenhouse gas pollution in 2024, compared to the 11% contributed by the US — the second-ranked nation. Since then, the US has revoked climate policies under President Donald Trump and saw emissions edge up last year, according to an analysis by Rhodium Group.

Article content

Efforts by China to lay out climate objectives through 2035 in a report lodged with the United Nations last year shows its “commitment as a responsible major country,” the work report said. Critics have argued that strategy, which pledged a 7% to 10% cut in total greenhouse emissions, is too easily achievable. 

Article content

China also aims to “actively participate in and lead global climate governance,” according to a draft text of the country’s 15th five-year plan, and will continue to back the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement — both of which the US has exited.