China’s Five-Year Plan to Target Fixes to Commodities Supply

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That puts a heavier load on the latest plan. The Centre for Research on Clean Air and Energy estimates that carbon intensity needs to be slashed by 23% if China is to meet its 2015 Paris climate obligations. But the renewables boom has put the country on a solid footing. Overall emissions fell last year for the first time since the pandemic, according to CREA.

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The carbon intensity goal will be buttressed from this year with a secondary target that looks at total emissions, which will replace the more forgiving yardstick of measuring energy intensity. The government’s previous assessments of progress on climate had allowed it to tout successes even as overall emissions soared — so long as they didn’t grow faster than the economy.

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Excess Capacity

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China’s longstanding effort to deal with industrial overcapacity shifted into higher gear in July with the launch of its anti-involution campaign. But the scorecard at this early juncture is mixed at best. Losses at solar manufacturers have deepened, there are doubts over whether steelmakers have actually managed to cut output, and oil refiners are churning through more barrels than ever.

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Government planners have so far largely avoided hard targets on capacity or production, relying instead on policy signaling, regulatory fixes and voluntary discipline measures that will take time to play out. HSBC Holdings Plc said Beijing’s focus on supply may need to be “complemented by targeted demand-side initiatives,” which would fit in with its broader goal of lifting consumption’s shares of the economy.

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Food Abundance

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Feeding over 1 billion people is always top of mind in China. The headline figure for policymakers is an annual target for the grain harvest — in 2025 it was raised to 700 million tons — that usually proves more than manageable for the country’s farmers. Where they’ve struggled is surviving low prices across a swath of agricultural goods.

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Now that China’s mending trade relations with many of its overseas partners, there’ll probably be even more competition, whether that’s from US soybeans, Canadian canola or perhaps German pork. Looser imports are likely to add to deflationary pressures in the farm sector. More measures to help rural incomes, control supply and support prices — without jeopardizing food security — are the government’s likely remedy.  

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On the Wire

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Bloomberg Economics expects the 2026 budget, to be announced March 5 at the National People’s Congress, to broadly match 2025 in scale. Investors are seeking clarity on how Beijing intends to press ahead with its tech ambitions while reviving a fragile consumer economy. 

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China faces a daily deficit of up to 1 million barrels if Iranian crude shipments are disrupted, and would likely turn to Russia and resume purchases from the US to fill the gap, said Bloomberg Intelligence.

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China’s solar power generation overtook wind for the first time last year as a boom in cheap panels continues to reshape the country’s grid and climate trajectory.

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China said it would drop tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and lobsters, easing disruptions to agricultural trade after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s January visit. It will impose a 5.9% anti‑dumping duty on rapeseed imports starting March 1.

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This Week’s Diary

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(All times Beijing)

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Monday, March 2:

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Tuesday, March 3:

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Wednesday, March 4:

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Thursday, March 5:

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Friday, March 6:

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Saturday, March 7

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—With assistance from Megan Durisin and Hallie Gu.

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