Chiefs vs. Steelers odds, prediction: NFL Christmas Day picks, best bet

Kansas City has won 19 of its last 20 games, but everyone still wants to doubt the defending back-to-back Super Bowl champions.

The Chiefs are 13-1 this season but are 7-8 against the spread. However, they’ve covered two straight after not beating the spread in their previous six games.

Perhaps there was an overcorrection in the odds.

The Chiefs are raring into form, as FTN’s Aaron Schatz says that his stat, defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), tells a story that Andy Reid’s group is playing some of their best ball of the season.

Their last three games (vs. Chargers, at Browns, vs. Texans) are the highest performances of the season in terms of DVOA.

Perhaps they are just getting healthy at the right time, as Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and Isiah Pacheco are back from injury.

Chiefs vs. Steelers odds

Russell Wilson has struggled without star receiver George Pickens. Getty Images

Chiefs vs. Steelers prediction

Wednesday, Dec. 25, 1 p.m. ET, Netflix

Patrick Mahomes is getting back some of his weapons, and rookie receiver Xavier Worthy is beginning to turn the corner as one of Mahomes’ favorite targets.

The Chiefs’ offense is beginning to turn it around after being ranked No. 24 in yards per play this season (5.1).

Meanwhile, the Steelers are expected to get back wide receiver George Pickens, who appears to be the linchpin of the Pittsburgh offense.

Patrick Mahomes showed he has no ill effects from a high ankle sprain. David Smith/CSM/Shutterstock

The two teams that face off on Christmas Day have the same yards per play average on offense (5.1), while the Steelers have a slightly higher yards per play allowed on defense (5.4).

The Steelers are rated No. 10 in DVOA, compared to No. 7 for the Chiefs.

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All of these statistics show that this is a razor-thin matchup.

We’re looking to back the Steelers against a three-point spread Wednesday.

PICK: Steelers +3 (-120, ESPN BET)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.