Chiefs predicted to rebound in 2026 season thanks to 65% Patrick Mahomes stat

The Kansas City Chiefs have a nightmare 2025 season, with the team losing plenty of close games and eventually Patrick Mahomes going down with an injury.

But he's coming back for the 2026 season, and this Chiefs team has a lot of optimism heading into the year. This should be a good team for Chiefs fans. But the question is, how good can they actually be?

Well, ESPN's Bill Barnwell is predicting that the ceiling of this team will be decided on one-score games, and that Mahomes' 65% win rate in such games could have Kansas City back atop the AFC West by season's end.

Patrick Mahomes' 65% one-score game win rate could decide Chiefs' season

"And unless we see a dramatically different underlying level of play from this team, so much of that might come down to those one-score games and how things pan out in the final minutes of close contests," Barnwell writes.

Last season, the Chiefs went a brutal 1-9 in one-score games, a stark difference from their 10-0 record in such games during the 2024 regular season.

It's hard to imagine that the Chiefs will once again find themselves on either end of the spectrum. Somewhere between those two season numbers is more likely.

So, what would happen to the Chiefs if their one-score game winning percentage climbed back up to normal levels? Well, Barnwell explained the two outcomes for Kansas City that could dictate the upcoming season.

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"Winning half of such games would get the Chiefs back into the playoffs," Barnwell writes. "And winning about 65% of the time -- which is Mahomes' new career rate in games decided by seven points or fewer  -- might push Kansas City back atop the AFC West."

There's no telling if the Chiefs will be able to rebound from such bad luck in one-score games last season. But even if they just land around 50%, the Chiefs should be a playoff team.

Considering they have Mahomes on their side, that's good enough to go on a deep playoff run. And if they can win at Mahomes' normal career rate of one-score games, then Barnwell believes the AFC West title could return to Kansas City this upcoming season.

Barnwell is predicting the Chiefs will rebound this year, and if Mahomes can return to form and they can get his typical luck in one-score games, the AFC West title might be theirs for the taking.

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