5 hours ago
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Chelsea hasn’t exactly set the FIFA Club World Cup on fire.
The Blues are into the Round of 16, so mission accomplished, but they haven’t been all that impressive through their first three matches.
Chelsea defeated LAFC and ES Tunis by a combined score of 5-0, but they lost to Flamengo, 3-1.
But as fate would have it, that loss to Flamengo meant that Chelsea would play Benfica, winners of Group C in the Round of 16, rather than Bayern Munich.
Chelsea is a -178 favorite to advance and is a +110 favorite on the three-way moneyline.
Chelsea vs. Benfica betting prediction
The FIFA World Cup has been unbalanced, with some very soft groups and others that were much tougher. It’s fair to say that Chelsea was placed in one of the more difficult sets, so it’s not a huge shock they had a stumble.
It’s also fair to say we haven’t seen their best just yet.
Whether it’s fatigue after a long season in Europe or because they’re embedding new players, Chelsea has left plenty of room for improvement.
Benfica’s Andreas Schjelderup celebrating a goal. APAnd with their fortunate draw, they can continue to ramp up with the hope they hit their peak at the perfect time.
Not only does Chelsea catch a break with their match against Benfica in this round, but they will be a chunky favorite against Palmeiras or Botafogo in the quarterfinals, should they get there.
Chelsea vs. Benfica pick
Like their overall game, Chelsea’s offense has sputtered at times throughout the first three games but there are reasons to believe they’ll have more success.
New signing Liam Delap found the back of the net in a 3-0 win over ES Tunis, and that opened the floodgates for the Blues.
Chelsea has created 4.8 expected goals and scored six times through three matches, but the opportunities they do generate have been of high quality.
Only two teams have created more big scoring chances in this tournament than the Blues.
That type of quality-over-quantity approach should work well against Benfica, who would rather more opportunities to turn the ball over and create counter-attacking opportunities.
Chelsea should be well-positioned to prevent that from happening.
Benfica’s defense will be a tough nut to crack, but I think Chelsea is undervalued in this round and beyond because of their draw.
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Things will get tougher in the semifinals and beyond, but the Blues have a terrific chance of making a deep run in the knockout rounds.
If they do that, you’ll be thrilled to be holding an 11/1 ticket on a team that hasn’t peaked just yet.
The Play: Chelsea to win the Club World Cup (11/1, BetMGM)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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