Charting the Global Economy: Powell Probe; Iran Protests

2[{(yg22o{owmb5pq{berm8r_media_dl_12.png Congressional Budget Office

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(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank had been served grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department threatening a criminal indictment, a dramatic escalation of the Trump administration’s attacks on the institution.

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In Iran, protests that erupted on Dec. 28 after a sudden collapse in the value of the currency broadened into the biggest and most violent challenge to the rule of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Republic since it was established after the 1979 revolution. 

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The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported that 2,586 people had been killed from late December through Wednesday, up from about 500 at the start of the week.

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Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics:

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US

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On the verge of naming a new Fed chief, the Trump administration took one more shot at the incumbent — and triggered a Washington backlash that could yet derail the whole campaign to tighten White House control over the central bank. Worryingly for Trump, plenty in his own party seem to agree — including a key lawmaker on the Senate Banking Committee, who’s warning he’ll block Fed appointments. What’s more, Powell has the option to remain at the central bank after his term as chair ends in May.

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Underlying US inflation rose in December by less than expected, a more confident signal of cooling price growth after shutdown-related distortions complicated the previous report. The core consumer price index, which excludes the often volatile food and energy categories, advanced 2.6% on an annual basis, matching a four-year low.

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The US economy could become less dynamic as new Congressional Budget Office forecasts show the population aging and the dependency ratio shifting. The CBO now expects the population to grow more slowly than before, projecting it to reach 364 million by 2050 — 8 million fewer than it forecast last January.

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Emerging Markets

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As protesters pour into the streets of Iran night after night, leaders across the region and around the world are grappling with the possibility that the Islamic Republic could be overthrown — a seminal event that would transform global geopolitics and energy markets.

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Oil traders are watching for any escalation of the civil unrest in Iran that could disrupt the country’s crude production or prompt the government to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for several major Middle Eastern energy exporters.

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Inflation in Argentina accelerated more than expected and for a fourth straight month in December, a challenge President Javier Milei will have to tackle to incentivize foreign direct investment.

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World

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A global backdrop increasingly threatened by trade disputes and inter-state conflict is how respondents in a World Economic Forum survey see things panning out in 2026. The annual poll of 1,300 leaders and experts by the organization that will next week host meetings of the business and political elite in Switzerland describes how crises in the coming year are likely to emanate most either from commercial tensions or actual military encounters.