Chargers playoff picture: Breaking down Los Angeles' AFC wild-card chances in Jim Harbaugh's first season

The Los Angeles Chargers are 6-3 and in great position to make the AFC playoffs in the first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh, but NFL fans — particularly those who root for L.A. — are all too familiar with second-half slumps that drop the Bolts out of postseason contention.

Harbaugh was hired in his return to the NFL for that exact reason: Keeping the Chargers from "Chargering" — losing close games and falling short of expectations.

Here's looking at where L.A. stands in the AFC playoff picture going into a critical Week 11 home Sunday night game vs. the Bengals, as well as projecting the team's initial fate with Harbaugh.

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Chargers playoff picture

The Chargers, at 6-3 with their bye in the rearview mirror, are the AFC's No. 6 team and second of three wild cards, between the 7-3 Ravens and 5-5 Broncos. That puts them a half-game out of moving up and 1.5 games ahead of moving down.

Los Angeles is in second place in the AFC West, but it's three games behind 9-0 Kansas City with eight games left to play for both teams. It already lost the first matchup at home in Week 4.

The Chargers can then focus on getting into the Super Bowl 59 tournament as a wild card, for which they are in terrific shape.

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Chargers schedule

The Chargers have done well to beat a lot of bad competition. Their average margin of victory over the Raiders, Panthers, Broncos, Saints, Browns, and Titans is more than 14 points. Their three losses have come against other playoff-positioned teams, the Chiefs, Steelers, and Cardinals.

Beating the Bengals, who stand as the AFC's No. 9 team, would be huge for the Chargers' chances. Here's looking at how Los Angeles finishes up the season, starting vs. Cincinnati through Week 18:

• Week 11: vs. Bengals
• Week 12: vs. Ravens
• Week 13: at Falcons
• Week 14: at Chiefs
• Week 15: vs. Buccaneers
• Week 16: vs. Broncos
• Week 17: at Patriots
• Week 18: at Raiders

The schedule is pretty good, with that stretch between Weeks 12 and 14 accounting for the only remaining opponents who are playoff contender with winning records. In the unlikely event that the Chargers sweep the Bengals and Ravens at home to go 3-1 vs. the AFC North, they would almost be playoff locks.

The Chargers' worst-case scenario seems to be going 3-5 down the stretch, ending up at 9-8. Going 5-3 seems more likely for the ceiling to finish at 11-6.

Chargers' playoff prediction

The Chargers look like they will split that winning ceiling and losing floor and finish 4-4 — a still strong and dangerous wild-card team at 10-7. The AFC's back end is weak and AFC North play will limit what the Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers do in relation to them.

Harbaugh has cleaned up the mess of turnovers and the Chargers are no longer beating themselves. They're making it simple with recent great QB play from Justin Herbert, a better running game, and much more effective defense. Given the juice they've already shown, it would be shocking if the Chargers can't bolt into the playoffs in second place behind the Chiefs.