Celtics vs. Thunder prediction: NBA picks, odds, best bets Thursday

Oscar Season is upon us, and the Thunder have been doing their best version of “One Battle After Another” lately.

They’ve been in three straight clutch-time thrillers and came out on the other side victorious, buoyed by MVP-level performances from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He hit crucial 3-pointers in all three games to seal wins against the Knicks, Warriors, and Nuggets.

Now the Thunder welcome the Celtics to Oklahoma City for a potential NBA Finals preview sans some key players. Jalen Williams is still out with a hamstring injury, Alex Caruso hasn’t played since sustaining a hip injury, Isaiah Hartenstein is nursing a calf injury, and Chet Holmgren has the flu.

Celtics vs. Thunder prediction, best bets

Missing key players has not changed the way OKC plays on a nightly basis. It’s one of the most fascinating things about this team.

When Gilgeous-Alexander was sidelined before the All-Star break and missed nine games, the Thunder went 5-4 in his absence, then ripped off six straight wins after he returned. 

Over that 15-game stretch, their offense hasn’t been up to par, but their defense was virtually unchanged. They managed to post an 11-4 record, equal to the Celtics over that same time frame, with a Net Rating that is 5.3 points lower than Boston’s.

To their credit, the Celtics have played most of the season without Jayson Tatum and have the second-best record in the Eastern Conference.

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) drives to the basket. AP

Their performance this season has been wildly impressive, and Tatum obviously raises their ceiling, but the immediate impact of having Tatum back throws off the chemistry they’ve taken months to build.

There’s no question the Celtics can hang with the Thunder and beat them with both teams at full strength.

That said, it’s hard not to love OKC’s relentless defensive pressure being a constant no matter who they put on the floor. Put Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor with four of their bench players, and they still look like a 60-win team.

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As has happened to them over the past four games, I expect this game to come down to clutch time, and that’s where the Thunder have an edge over every team in the NBA.

They lead the NBA in clutch scoring and plus/minus, and if this game goes down to the final minutes, I expect Gilgeous-Alexander to deliver.

The Play: Thunder -6 (-114, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.