Carry Trade Is Powering On as Investors Sidestep Yen’s Gains

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(Bloomberg) — Emerging-market carry trades, some of this year’s most popular foreign-exchange bets, are showing resilience even after joint US-Japan currency intervention dented the appeal of this yen-funded strategy.

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The Bloomberg EM FX Carry Risk Premia Index has fallen about 1% since Japan used direct action to bolster its currency, about the same as a similar benchmark for Group-of-10 currencies. That’s a far cry from the 4% the EM carry measure fell in August 2024, when a sharp yen rally roiled global markets as traders rushed to repay their yen-denominated borrowings.

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The muted response has eased fears of a repeat of the 2024 blowup, and shows that investors have diversified away from the yen, tapping currencies such as the euro and the Swiss franc to finance purchases of high-yielding assets in emerging markets. While the Brazilian real has slumped 4% against the yen since intervention began, it’s little changed against the dollar and only 0.8% lower versus the euro.

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“The bar for a disorderly carry unwind is higher than we thought a few weeks ago,” said Thierry Larose, a portfolio manager at Vontobel in Zurich. “For now, I’d carry on but stay away from the yen.”

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Larose said he’s been using the dollar and the euro to pay for bullish developing-market positions while avoiding shorting the yen. He doesn’t view the Bank of Japan as “ready to turn hawkish,” but sees the currency as undervalued, making it less attractive to borrow in given its scope to strengthen.

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The yen has traditionally been a go-to currency to fund carry wagers, given that interest rates in Japan were around zero for decades. The BOJ’s benchmark, at 1%, remains the lowest in the Group of Seven. 

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However, the central bank has signaled the possibility of a hike in September. The energy shock sparked by the Iran war has helped fan inflation worries in Japan, an oil importer, and the cheap yen has added to that pressure. The yen traded around 158 per dollar in European trading Wednesday. It reached about 164 last week, its weakest since 1986, before the US and Japan stepped in to bolster it.

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The euro is also an appealing base currency because the region’s benchmark rate, at 2.25%, is lower than the Federal Reserve’s range for its target, of 3.5%-3.75%.

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Wells Fargo, in the meantime, is selling the low-yielding Swiss franc against the yen. It’s a bet that Japan’s policy shift, however slow, will keep the yield on the currency higher than the franc’s rock-bottom rate. The US bank is targeting the currency pair to fall nearly 4% to around 188, a level last seen in October.

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“Can the strategy continue to outperform? We see no reason why not,” wrote Steven Barrow, Standard Bank’s head of G-10 strategy in a note. “It seems that the trade has been impervious when any potential setbacks have occurred.”