Carney’s Narrow Victory Buoyed by Voters in Toronto, Montreal

(Photo by Andrej Ivanov/Getty Images) Photographer: Andrej Ivanov/Getty Images North America Photo by Andrej Ivanov /Getty Images

Article content

(Bloomberg) — Canada’s Liberal Party held onto crucial ground in the Toronto and Montreal regions, helping secure a path for Mark Carney to remain prime minister even as support slipped from the last federal election.

Article content

Article content

As of early Tuesday, Liberal candidates had won 38 of 53 Toronto-area ridings and 29 of 40 in the Montreal area, according to preliminary results from Elections Canada. While the party lost some ground compared to the 2021 elections — with Conservative Party candidates flipping seats north of Toronto as well as York Centre — the strong urban showing helped Carney clinch victory. 

Article content

Article content

With ballots still being tallied, it remained unclear whether Liberals would form a majority — getting at least 172 seats — or govern as a minority, which requires working with political opponents to pass laws.

Article content

Article content

The country’s two biggest cities have long been central to Liberal dominance. But a major warning sign came last year when the Liberals lost Toronto-St. Paul’s, a downtown riding, to the Conservatives in a by-election, ramping up pressure from party leaders for Justin Trudeau to leave office after nearly a decade as prime minister.

Article content

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre made major inroads in both cities in the months that followed, tapping into growing frustration among younger voters. Meanwhile, the by-election win — the first for Conservatives in Toronto—St. Paul’s in more than 30 years — jolted Liberal strategists into action and set the stage for a fierce battle during this year’s national campaign.

Article content

Article content

Over the past month, both parties flooded the regions with campaigning. Conservatives pushed to cement their new support, while the Liberals under Carney, who took over as Liberal leader and prime minister earlier this year, sought to win back voters. Both men argued they’d be the best leader to defend the country from the fallout of US President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign and guide Canada through a potential economic downturn.

Article content

The Greater Toronto Area, with a population of nearly 7 million, is home to a collage of key demographics, from the young, left-leaning voters in Toronto’s core to scores of South Asian, Chinese and Middle Eastern immigrant communities in the suburbs. Greater Montreal is Canada’s second-most populous metropolitan area, and has often been a bellwether during federal elections. 

Article content

Voters in the areas tend to split their support for Liberals and Conservatives depending on the election cycle. Many of the ridings that delivered repeat victories for Trudeau during his time in office also helped Ontario Premier Doug Ford, a Conservative, win back-to-back elections at the provincial level. 

Article content

Key Liberal politicians representing Toronto and Montreal, including former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland  and cabinet ministers Melanie Joly and Steven Guilbeault, hung onto their seats on Monday. Liberal candidate Leslie Church won in Toronto-St. Paul’s, taking the seat back from the Conservatives.

Article content

“There are two people that changed this election,” said Church in an interview with the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. following her victory. “They are Donald Trump, and Mark Carney.”

Article content