Carlos Rodon’s surgery leaves Yankees rotation in unexpected search for answers

The Yankees rotation initially looked like it was going to be a strength next season, both in quality and depth, and that still might end up being the case when all is said and done.

But the World Series has not even begun yet and the Yankees are already going to need at least one new addition just to begin the season with a full starting five.

That much became clear last week, when Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone announced that Carlos Rodón had undergone elbow surgery to remove loose bodies and shave down a bone spur. The procedure comes with an eight-week shutdown from throwing, and once the left-hander begins to ramp back up, he will not have enough time to be ready for the regular season, with an “April or early May at the latest” target from Cashman.

Gerrit Cole is not going to be ready by Opening Day either, as he finishes off his buildup from Tommy John surgery, while Clarke Schmidt is not expected to become a factor until some point in the second half, at best, after his own UCL surgery.

That means that, as of now, the healthy rotation members are down to Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren and Luis Gil. And given that Fried, Schlittler and Warren will all be coming off of career-high workloads, while Gil missed the first four months with a lat strain, the Yankees are suddenly looking like they may have to add some kind of rotation reinforcement this offseason.

“I don’t know what [Rodón’s surgery] means to where we put our remaining resources in and how we reinforce,” Cashman said Thursday during his end-of-season news conference. “Do we have enough from within? Do we have to go outside to augment? You never can have enough pitching. The good thing is he’s coming back, so I have to make sure there’s room on the roster when he does.”

That last part would suggest the Yankees are not going to fill Rodón’s spot with some big-ticket arm, though nothing can be ruled out at this point. Theoretically, the Yankees will have two spots to keep warm for early in the season, with the potential for both Rodón and Cole to be back perhaps by May if everything goes right — also not a guarantee.

By next spring, the Yankees should have better upper-level pitching depth at their disposal than they did this year, when Warren saved them by making an MLB-high 32 starts so they did not have to dip too far beyond the occasional spot start from Allan Winans. Another factor in that was lefty swingman Ryan Yarbrough, who delivered a terrific run of starts from May into June to keep the rotation afloat before he landed on the injured list himself.

Re-signing Yarbrough would make sense for the Yankees, given his history of easily moving between the rotation and bullpen. Winans is still on the 40-man roster, though he will be out of minor league options next season, creating less flexibility for how the Yankees use him.

The Yankees could also turn to some of their pitching prospects to plug the hole, hoping they do their best Schlittler impression (or some version of it, given how he delivered beyond expectations).

The closest to major league ready may be Brendan Beck, a 27-year-old righty the Yankees drafted out of Stanford with their second-round pick in 2021. Injuries, including Tommy John surgery, have slowed his rise through the minors, but he split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, posting a 3.36 ERA across 26 outings (24 starts) and 131 ¹/₃ innings.

Adding to his case is that the Yankees would have to add him to the 40-man roster this offseason unless they want to leave him exposed to selection in the Rule 5 draft.

Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz would likely be the closest among their highest-end prospects, after the 22-year-old righty finished his season by making a start at Triple-A. In 26 outings (25 starts) between High-A and Double-A, the 22-year-old righty combined to record a 2.42 ERA with 173 strikeouts in 145 innings.

There is also the flame-throwing Carlos Lagrange, a 22-year-old righty who in 24 games between High-A and Double-A this season pitched to a 3.53 ERA with 168 strikeouts in 120 innings. But he is still somewhat raw, and because of his issues with throwing strikes (which improved this season but remains a concern long term), he has the potential to end up in the bullpen.

The Yankees also figure to be in the free agent market at some level, though what tier they end up shopping remains to be seen.