Canadian Open 2025 Semifinal: Naomi Osaka vs Clara Tauson preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: Naomi Osaka vs (16) Clara Tauson

Date: August 6, 2025

Tournament: National Bank Open

Round: Semifinal

Venue: IGA Stadium, Montreal, Canada

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $5,152,599

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Naomi Osaka vs Clara Tauson preview

Naomi Osaka will continue her campaign at the 2025 Canadian Open, with her semifinal clash set up against 16th seed Clara Tauson.

Osaka kicked off the season on a positive note, making an impressive run to the final at the ASB Classic in Auckland. Along the way, she notched wins over players like Hailey Baptiste and Alycia Parks, setting up a championship showdown with Clara Tauson.

Osaka looked well on her way to claiming the title after taking the first set 6-4. Still, she was unfortunately forced to retire before the second set began due to an abdominal injury. Less than two weeks later, that same injury recurred during her third-round match against Belinda Bencic at the Australian Open. As a result, she stepped away from the WTA Tour for over seven weeks to focus on rehab and recovery.

When she returned to Indian Wells, Osaka struggled to find her rhythm and fell in straight sets to Camila Osorio in the opening round. But she quickly bounced back in Miami, putting up dominant wins over Yuliia Starodubtseva, Liudmila Samsonova, and Baptiste. Her campaign ended in the fourth round with a 6-3, 4-6, 4-6 loss against Jasmine Paolini.

Osaka began her North American swing at Washington, with a modest second-round appearance at the Citi DC Open. However, her performance in Montreal has been praiseworthy, having defeated a stronger set of opponents, including Ariana Arseneault, Jelena Ostapenko, Anastasija Sevastova, and Elina Svitolina.

Meanwhile, Tauson got past a fairly tough group of players during her title run in Auckland, including Madison Keys and Sofia Kenin. However, she was unable to follow it up with a deep run in Melbourne, suffering a third-round loss against Aryna Sabalenka.

Except for a first-round loss at the Qatar Open, the Danish player had a memorable month-long stretch from late January to late February. During this period, she reached the semifinals of the Linz Open and the finals at Dubai.

Tauson then suffered second-round losses in each of her next three hard-court tournaments, falling to Mirra Andreeva in Indian Wells, Paula Badosa in Miami, and Anna Kalinskaya in Washington. Her run to the semifinal of the ongoing WTA 1000 event includes victories over Lucia Bronzetti, Starodubtseva, Iga Swiatek, and Keys.

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Naomi Osaka vs Clara Tauson head-to-head

Tauson leads the head-to-head 1-0. However, Osaka was forced to withdraw mid-match during their sole meeting.

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Naomi Osaka vs Clara Tauson odds

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Naomi Osaka vs Clara Tauson prediction

Osaka has heavily relied on her powerful serve, winning 74.2% of her points on the first serve and 51.4% on the second. In contrast, Tauson comes into the match with 71.4% and 46.9% of her points won on the first and second serve, respectively, on hard courts.

Despite Osaka’s serving strength, Tauson is considered the clear favorite due to her higher ranking and stronger recent form. She also holds the edge in groundstrokes and has superior speed, which suggests she will dominate in longer rallies.

Prediction: Tauson to win in three sets.

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Edited by Aayush Kapoor