Canadian Open 2025: Holger Rune vs Alexei Popyrin preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (5) Holger Rune vs (18) Alexei Popyrin

Date: August 2, 2025

Tournament: National Bank Open

Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Sobeys Stadium, Toronto, Canada

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Holger Rune vs Alexei Popyrin preview

Fifth seed Holger Rune will continue his campaign at the Canadian Open 2025, with his fourth-round clash set up against 18th seed Alexei Popyrin.

Rune did not have the desired buildup to the Australian Open, suffering a first-round loss against Jiri Leheckha in the Brisbane International. However, this did not dent his confidence, as he reached the fourth round in Melbourne. He had wins over Zhang Zhizhen, Matteo Berrettini and Miomir Kecmanovic before falling to Jannik Sinner 3-6, 6-3, 3-6, 2-6.

Rune proceeded to have an inconsistent run shortly after, beginning with a third-round loss against Pedro Martinez in Rotterdam and an opening-round loss in Buenos Aires. Nearly a month later, he had posted his best result of the season so far.

Despite having a fairly tough draw, Rune got past Corentin Moutet, Ugo Humbert, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Tallon Griekspoor and Daniil Medvedev to reach the finals at Indian Wells. His run ultimately came to an end, following a 2-6, 2-6 loss against Jack Draper.

Rune made his return to hard courts at the ongoing ATP 1000 event, marking his first appearance on the surface since a first-round exit in Miami in late March. He has looked sharp so far, advancing past Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Alexandre Muller in straight sets.

Popyrin, on the other hand, had a disastrous start to his campaign. He suffered first-round losses in each of the first four tournaments that he participated in, falling to Matteo Arnaldi, Moutet, Jiri Lehecka and Jack Draper in Brisbane, Melbourne, Rotterdam and Qatar, respectively.

The Aussie finally broke this unwanted streak, clinching his first win of the season on February 24. He defeated Hady Habib in Dubai before suffering a loss to Marin Cilic in the second round of the Dubai Tennis Championships.

Popyrin’s woes on the hard court have continued since then, losing in the second round at Indian Wells, first round in Miami and Washington.

In Toronto, the defending champion has gotten past Nicolas Arseneault and Medvedev.

Holger Rune vs Alexei Popyrin head-to-head

Rune leads the head-to-head 1-0. At the ATP Masters 1000 event in Rome, Rune won in three sets.

Holger Rune vs Alexei Popyrin odds

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

Holger Rune vs Alexei Popyrin prediction

Popyrin is performing above his usual level, seemingly motivated to defend his title in Toronto. Still, Rune stands out as the clear favorite. He holds a higher ranking, a far better win record, more tournament victories in 2025, and enters the match in superior form.

While Popyrin’s strong serving gives him an edge in first-serve points and aces, Rune excels in nearly every other area. He commits fewer double faults, has stronger groundstrokes, greater speed around the court, and a higher break point conversion rate.

Prediction: Rune to win in straight sets.

Edited by Luke Koshi