Canadian Open 2025: Frances Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (7) Frances Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki

Date: July 30, 2025

Tournament: National Bank Open

Round: Second Round (Round of 64)

Venue: Sobeys Stadium, Toronto, Canada

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Frances Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki preview

Seventh seed Frances Tiafoe will begin his campaign at the Canadian Open 2025, set to face Japan’s Yosuke Watanuki as his second-round matchup.

Tiafoe is in the midst of one of his worst seasons in recent history, boasting a mere 55.6% win rate. He began 2025 with a second-round loss to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in Brisbane, followed by participating in back-to-back five-set thrillers in the Australian Open. While he prevailed against Arthur Rinderknech in the first round, Tiafoe wasn’t able to get past Fabian Marozsan.

Eerily coincidental, the American bowed out of the second round in each of the next four tournaments he participated in. He suffered losses against Yoshihito Nishioka, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Yosuke Watanuki and Arthur Fils in Dallas, Delray Beach, Indian Wells and Miami, respectively.

Tiafoe only broke this second-round curse four months into the season, with a run to the final in Houston.

In his return to the hard court, Tiafoe posted an encouraging result to begin the North American swing. He got past Aleksanadar Kovacevic and Flavio Cobolli before suffering a 6-7(2), 4-6 loss against Ben Shelton in the quarterfinals of the Citi DC Open.

Watanuki, on the other hand, has spent most of his year playing at the Challenger level or in the qualifying draws of ATP events.

He did not advance to the main draw of any ATP tournaments until the third month of the season. At Indian Wells, Watanuki witnessed a dream run, defeating Alexander Bublik, Tomas Machac and Tiafoe to reach the fourth round. Ultimately, his dream run at the ATP Masters 1000 event came to an end at the hands of Tallon Griekspoor.

Watanuki then, again, failed to get past the qualifying draw of the Miami Open and Citi DC Open.

In the opening round of the ongoing Masters 1000 event, he upset Daniel Altmaier 3-6, 6-1, 6-4.

Frances Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki head-to-head

The head-to-head is tied at 1-1. In their latest encounter at the 2025 Indian Wells, Watanuki prevailed in straight sets.

Frances Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki odds

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

Frances Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki prediction

Yosuke Watanuki has a slightly better win rate on hard courts, but Frances Tiafoe’s recent form suggests he has found his rhythm since his slow start to the season. He generally thrives during the North American swing, with his strong showing in Washington reflecting the same.

Tiafoe averaged 9.3 aces per match there and won 78.6% of his first-serve points, a sign of his increased confidence. Given his current momentum and comfort on these surfaces, he’s favored to win convincingly.

Prediction: Tiafoe to win in straight sets.

Edited by Luke Koshi