Canadian Open 2025: Alex de Minaur vs Christopher O’Connell preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (9) Alex de Minaur vs Christopher O’Connell

Date: August 1, 2025

Tournament: National Bank Open

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Sobeys Stadium, Toronto, Canada

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Alex de Minaur vs Christopher O’Connell preview

Ninth seed Alex de Minaur will continue his campaign at the Canadian Open 2025 with his third-round match against fellow Aussie Christopher O’Connell.

De Minaur started the season consistently, maintaining a 10-3 win/loss record through the first three tournaments. During this stretch, he reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, the ABN AMRO Open final, and the quarterfinals of the Qatar Open, losing to Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Andrey Rublev, respectively.

De Minaur went through a slump over the next month. He began with a shocking 2-6, 6-3, 3-6 first-round loss to Marin Cilic in Dubai, before posting subpar results in the Sunshine Double.

In Indian Wells, he blew past David Goffin and Hubert Hurkacz without dropping a single set. Despite looking well in form, De Minaur was handed a 5-7, 3-6 loss by Francisco Cerundolo in the fourth round. He had a similar run in Miami, defeating Yunchaokete Bu and Joao Fonseca, before losing to Matteo Berrettini in straight sets.

De Minaur returned to the hard court in the final week of July, having a triumphant run in Washington. At the Citi DC Open, he lifted his first title of the season, defeating Bu, Jiri Lehecka, Brandon Nakashima, Corentin Moutet, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina along the way.

O’Connell, meanwhile, had a disastrous start to his season in Australia. He began with a first-round loss against Alex Michelsen in Brisbane, followed by a second-round loss against Miomir Kecmanovic in Adelaide.

Expectedly, the hometown hero suffered an opening-round loss in Melbourne during the Australian Open. However, he put up an incredible fight against 12th seed Tommy Paul, pushing the American to five sets. After four hours, O’Connell eventually fell 2-6, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6 (5), 5-7.

In his subsequent three tournaments, Qatar, Dubai, and Indian Wells, O’Connell suffered second-round losses before losing 3-6, 6-3, 6-7 (5) in the opening round of the Miami Open.

O’Connell had a forgettable start to the North American swing, suffering a first-round loss against Ethan Quinn. However, he has defeated Tseng Chun-hsin and upset Stefanos Tsitsipas in the ongoing ATP Masters 1000 event.

Alex de Minaur vs Christopher O’Connell head-to-head

O’Connell leads the head-to-head 1-0.

Alex de Minaur vs Christopher O’Connell odds

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

Alex de Minaur vs Christopher O’Connell prediction

De Minaur enters the match as the higher-ranked player with a stronger track record on outdoor hardcourts, making him the clear favorite. Although O’Connell is the more powerful server, averaging 2.4 more aces per match, De Minaur is more effective overall. He wins a higher percentage of points on both his first and second serves.

De Minaur’s superior groundstrokes and exceptional court speed will give him a distinct edge in longer rallies. While O’Connell has the tools to test his compatriot, De Minaur’s consistency and all-around game should help him extend his win streak to seven matches..

Prediction: De Minaur to win in straight sets.

Edited by Samya Majumdar