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(Bloomberg) — Canadian retail sales kept rising ahead of an oil price shock that may divert spending away from non-essential items.
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An advance estimate suggests receipts for retailers rose 0.9% in February, following January’s 1.1% increase, Statistics Canada reported Friday. The January figure missed the median projection of 1.5% in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
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Together, the data point to a 1.8% expansion in the first quarter, assuming flat sales in March. That follows tepid 0.1% growth in the fourth quarter.
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The data precede the Iran war, which has sent Brent soaring above $100 a barrel. Canadian consumers, already grappling with tariff uncertainty and a weakened job market, may hold off on discretionary spending as prices at the pump surge.
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The statistics agency didn’t provide details for the February estimate, which is based on responses from 53.4% of companies surveyed.
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In January, sales were up in six of nine sectors, led by a 2% increase at motor vehicles and parts dealers. Higher sales at new car dealers drove the expansion, while used vehicle sellers saw a decline.
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Excluding autos, sales rose 0.8% in January, lower than the median estimate of 1.2%.
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Core retail sales, which exclude gas stations and car dealers, were up 0.9%. Sales at general merchandise retailers rose 3%, marking a fourth straight monthly increase, while sporting goods, hobby and book sellers grew 2.6%.
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Food and beverage retailers saw the largest decrease with a 0.6% drop, led by supermarkets and grocery stores.
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In volume terms, retail sales rose 1% in January.
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That month, sales rose in all 10 provinces. The largest increase in dollar terms was seen in the oil-producing province of Alberta, led by higher sales at vehicle and parts dealers.
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—With assistance from Mario Baker Ramirez.
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English (US)