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If there’s been one certainty in Major League Baseball over the past decade, it’s the Dodgers winning the NL West.
They’ve been dominant, winning the division title in 12 of the past 13 seasons. Even though the Giants broke through in 2021, Los Angeles still won 106 games that year.
The scary part is that 2026 is shaping up to be the Dodgers’ most talented team on paper over the past decade, which leaves the rest of the NL West looking up and chasing them.
The Padres and Giants both made fundamental changes by bringing in new managers: Craig Stammen for the Padres, Tony Vitello for the Giants. The Diamondbacks are three years removed from playing in the World Series. And the Rockies, well, they’re still the Rockies.
The California Post’s Jack Harris previews the National League West
1 – Los Angeles Dodgers
O/U wins: 102.5
Key player: Shohei Ohtani. The four-time MVP is entering perhaps his most highly anticipated season yet, returning to full-time two-way duties in pursuit of a third-consecutive World Series championship. Never before has Ohtani had to shoulder such a big load, on a team with such big expectations. But if he can handle the rigors of both hitting and pitching, it could super-charge the potential of their already loaded roster.
Player who’ll need to step up: The Dodgers signed Edwin Díaz to shore up their one big weakness from last year, hoping to avoid the late-game bullpen problems that plagued them for much of the 2025 season. Díaz was the best closer on the free-agent market, and gives the Dodgers their best closing option since the departure of Kenley Jansen. Now, he needs to live up to the billing, and maintain his All-Star form in L.A.
Name you’ll get to know: River Ryan. Technically, he already debuted in 2024, but now he’s returning from Tommy John surgery having gained 30 pounds and improved his six-pitch mix. He might not start the season in the majors, but the Dodgers always have pitching injuries during the course of the year. And when they do, there will be a lane for the right-hander to show off his post-rehab improvements, trying to become the next young pitcher to emerge from their farm system.
Biggest question mark: Will the pressure of a three-peat bid have any effect? The Dodgers have repeatedly downplayed that narrative this spring. Manager Dave Roberts went as far as saying the pressure on the team was more noticeable last year. Still, historic expectations can’t be completely blocked out, nor can the complaints about the Dodgers’ dominance and spending. Even for a veteran and battle-tested team, it could be an underrated challenge.
How it’ll go down: With 100-plus wins in the regular season, an extended postseason run … but, not another championship. The Dodgers might make winning look easy. But they’ve struggled for extended stretches each of the last two years and faced several elimination games en route to their back-to-back World Series. Eventually, the randomness of baseball catches up. There’s a reason three-peats are so rare.
2 – San Diego Padres
O/U: 83.5
Key player: Fernando Tatis Jr. He is coming off his best season since returning from his PED suspension. He had an excellent showing for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. And now, the Padres have to hope he elevates his game back to MVP-caliber levels. After all, San Diego was financially hamstrung this winter amid ownership uncertainty. They weren’t able to make many impact additions to the roster. But getting Tatis back to league-leading form would qualify as as big of an upgrade as anything.
Player who’ll need to step up: Michael King. The Padres’ pitching staff is rife with questions. And while Nick Pivetta was a nice story last year, it is King (fresh off his new $75 million, opt-out-rich contract) who will need to pitch like the team’s ace. The centerpiece of the Juan Soto trade, King flashed that form in his first season with the Padres (13-9, 2.95 ERA in 2024), before missing time last year with a shoulder injury. If he can get back to that, it would give the team a needed bedrock to build its rotation around.
Name you’ll get to know: Let’s cheat a little, and go with a name you’ll get to know all over again. San Diego native and fan favorite pitcher Joe Musgrove should be back at some point from a Tommy John surgery that sidelined him all of last year, and will be tasked with providing a boost in both production and morale. Unfortunately for him, he’s already slated to start the season on the IL. But if the Padres prove to be a contender this year, it’s likely he’ll be part of the mix.
Biggest question mark: Is their window still open? This may be more of an existential query, but it’s one the Padres will have to answer as this year goes on. Though they’ve been to the playoffs four out of the last six years, they’ve advanced to the NLCS just once. They still have big names on the roster, but haven’t put enough pieces together to make a serious title push. If they think a World Series is still possible, it could push them toward the kind of aggressive trade deadline that could help them more seriously chase one. If not, maybe this is the year they begin to reset.
How it’ll go down: If their superstars play up to expectations, and their pitching staff doesn’t completely unravel, the Padres should sneak into the playoffs again. But none of those are guarantees, and even if they do happen, any legitimate World Series aspirations are likely beyond their grasp.
3 – San Francisco Giants
O/U: 80.5
Key player: Rafael Devers. The Giants took a mighty gamble by trading for Devers and his monstrous contract last year. Now, they need him to be the impact player they thought they were getting. If Devers can return to the All-Star form he had with the Red Sox, it could make him the missing piece in an otherwise underwhelming Giants lineup. If not, concerns that his acquisition was a bust will continue to build.
Player who’ll need to step up: Willy Adames. The shortstop didn’t have a bad debut season with the Giants last year, hitting 30 home runs and driving in 87. But, he batted just .225, graded out below-average on defense, and didn’t exactly play up to the level of his $182 million contract. That’ll need to change this year. Because, like Devers, the Giants offense can ill-afford to have such a high-earner play like anything short of a star.
Name you’ll get to know: Bryce Eldridge. The left-handed-hitting slugger has been knocking on the door of the big leagues for a while, making his debut in a 10-game cameo last year. Now, he is finally expected to break through more permanently at some point this year. Whatever pop he provides, the Giants will happily take.
Biggest question mark: Will the Tony Vitello experiment work? The Giants made waves by hiring Vitello from the University of Tennessee this offseason. He made history by being the first MLB manager to come directly from the college ranks. It’s a mighty gamble on the part of president of baseball operations Buster Posey. And if it doesn’t work, it risks wasting all the money the Giants have spent to bolster their roster.
How it’ll go down: The Giants could be a sneaky dark horse. There’s a world where Devers, Adames and Matt Chapman all shine. Where Logan Webb is a Cy Young candidate. Where role players like Luis Arraez, Harrison Bader and Jung Hoo Lee infuse excitement and production. Their bullpen is a big question, and their rotation depth is dicey. But a playoff appearance is far from impossible.
4 – Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 79.5
Key player: Ketel Marte. The longtime face of the franchise is back despite an offseason full of trade rumors, trying to put the clubhouse drama he was mired in last season behind him. It was only two years ago, after all, Marte was an MVP finalist in Arizona. And though he wasn’t quite as dynamic last year (especially given the amount of time he missed), he was still an All-Star and Silver Slugger. If the Dbacks are going to be a surprise contender this year, it will have to start with him.
Player who’ll need to step up: Zac Gallen. The right-hander’s first foray into free agency was a disappointment, having to settle for a one-year, $16.2 million re-signing in Arizona after a career-worst 4.83 ERA in 2025. Now, he is trying to rebuild his market, and anchor a Dbacks rotation that also returns Merrill Kelly. Pitching is the team’s biggest weakness, but a resurgent Gallen could help.
Name you’ll get to know: Jordan Lawlar. A former sixth overall draft pick who played sparingly in the majors the last few years, Lawlar is now shifting to the outfield, where the Dbacks hope the 23-year-old will find a more permanent home –– and more consistent at-bats. After an offseason of much turnover for the club, his performance will have big implications for the future.
Biggest question mark: Is the World Series magic still there? It’s easy to forget now, but the Dbacks were the last team to beat the Dodgers in a playoff series, upsetting them in the 2023 NLDS en route to their surprise World Series appearance. Three years later, the club has many of the same core stars, but hasn’t made a return trip to the playoffs. Time will tell if they conjure such an unexpected run again.
How it’ll go down: The lineup looks weaker than last year, with Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor replaced by Nolan Arenado and Carlos Santana. The pitching remains a question, especially after Gallen and Kelly. And despite having three players who could legitimately vie for an MVP (Marte, Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo), the Dbacks depth seems weak. In a perfect world, they have the pieces to be a potential playoff contender. More likely, they finish somewhere around 80 wins.
5 – Colorado Rockies
O/U: 54.5
Key player: Paul DePodesta. No, he’s not a player. But given the woeful recent state of the Rockies, their front office leader is more important than anyone on the current roster. Back in baseball after 10 years with in the NFL with the Cleveland Browns, DePodesta is taking on the toughest current job in the majors as Colorado’s president of baseball operations. It will not be a quick turnaround.
Player who’ll need to step up: Um … anybody? The Rockies are not worried about competing right now, instead evaluating their organization for pieces to build around in the future. Maybe that’ll be former first-round picks like Jordan Beck (an outfielder) or Chase Dollander (a pitcher). Or maybe third-year catcher Hunter Goodman will take another step toward star status. For now, any surprises will do, and plenty of young names should get opportunities.
Name you’ll get to know: Ezequiel Tovar. If there’s one bona fide impact big-leaguer in Colorado, this is it. At 24-years-old, he already has a Gold Glove award and a 45-double, 25-homer season. In this spring’s World Baseball Classic, he was a breakout star with champions Team Venezuela. If anyone pops from the Rockies this year, it’s likely to be him.
Biggest question mark: Can the Rockies figure out a way to improve their pitching? This is a question as old as the 33-year-old franchise itself, thanks to the extreme challenges of playing at mile-high altitude. Without better pitching, consistent winning seasons are likely to remain elusive. Any signs of progress would qualify as a success this year.
How it’ll go down: Likely with another 100-loss season, but maybe with some future pieces beginning to emerge, as well. The Rockies remain years away from anything close to contention. But if they can identify a couple building blocks, that’ll at least be a step in the right direction.
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