California billionaire tax draws majority support in new poll — but there’s a big catch

California voters favor the billionaire tax that’s on the November ballot, according to a new poll — but there are pitfalls ahead for the controversial measure that’s spurred some of the ultra-wealthy to take their business elsewhere.

Fifty-two percent of likely voters said they support Proposition 40, the proposed 5% one-time tax on the total wealth of billionaires in the state, according to a Public Policy Institute survey of 1,103 California voters about 14 measures on the November ballot. Forty-six percent were against, while 2% said they didn’t know.

But a similar percentage of voters were in favor of two “poison pill” measures that would nullify key parts of the billionaire tax if they receive more votes, the poll found.

Both of those measures, Prop. 41 and Prop. 42, were funded by Google co-founder Sergey Brin, who has spent more than $100 million on a handful of initiatives meant to address taxes, governance reform and building rules — and kill the billionaire tax in the process.

Prop. 42, which leads with 54% voicing support in the poll would prohibit new taxes on personal property excluding real estate, such as retirement accounts, intellectual property and financial assets. If the measure wins more votes, it would prevent the billionaire tax from taking effect.

Prop. 41, holding a narrow lead with 51% in the poll, would increase audits of new taxpayer-funded programs and also includes a provision that would block the billionaire tax.

“The supporters of Prop. 40 have to think about and perhaps do something about the fact that so many people are supporting 41 and 42,” Mark Baldassare, PPIC’s statewide survey director, told the Mercury News in an interview. “Therein lies the problem when you have measures and countermeasures on the ballot.”

The PPIC survey was conducted between Sept. 4 and Sept. 10 and had a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

The SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West, lead proponent of the billionaire tax plan, say it’s needed to replenish federal funding cuts in healthcare and education. Critics — who include Gov. Gavin Newsom and business interests — argue it would damage California’s economy, leading to a loss of 100,000 jobs and billions in tax revenue over time as billionaires opt to relocate, according to one analysis.

SEIU-UHW leader Dave Regan has described the tax plan as part of a national push to raise levies on the ultra-wealthy.

“I think this is now a national campaign,” Regan told Politico in August. “We knew this was provocative, we knew it would touch a nerve, but we completely underestimated how much interest and attention it would generate.”

Brin’s political spending group Building a Better California has also contributed money to Prop. 45, a measure intended to set limits on California Environmental Quality Act building reviews.