Burnham Found a Way Back to Westminster by Rebelling Against It

68qbagqebt5e7hhky49feqda_media_dl_1.png Deltapoll, More in Common

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(Bloomberg) — Andy Burnham’s triumphant return to the House of Commons shows Labour colleagues he can turn the party’s fortunes around in a way that others can’t.

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The Greater Manchester mayor’s unexpectedly wide win over Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon in a parliamentary by-election on Thursday showed his appeal in communities where Labour is losing ground to anti-immigration populists. Just six weeks earlier, the party founded by Brexiteer Nigel Farage swept local elections in the same area.

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It also validates a reputation cultivated by Burnham over almost a decade of self-imposed exile from Westminster, during which he criticized central government and turned advocate for England’s neglected north. 

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“I don’t think there’s another Labour politician in the country who would’ve pulled that off,” Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy said as the result became clear at the count in Makerfield, northern England, where Burnham emerged victorious.

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Now, he will get another chance at power in Westminster after twice being rejected by Labour in leadership contests in the 2010s. Securing a seat in Parliament removed his final obstacle to a third tilt at the leadership, this time with Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s job in his sights.

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“We have an opportunity to turn the tide, to make the country feel like it’s working again, to make people see that politics can make a positive difference, to make people feel hope again,” Burnham said Friday in a victory rally at a local football club.

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During the campaign, Burnham, 56, made clear his intention to challenge Starmer, who is deeply unpopular with the electorate and has hemorrhaged support within Labour. In the wake of last month’s disastrous local elections, almost a quarter of Labour’s more-than 400 MPs called on Starmer to go. Many see Burnham as their party’s savior. 

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That’s quite the turnaround for a man who came a distant second to Jeremy Corbyn in the 2015 leadership contest and placed fourth in 2010. It seems likely he’ll easily garner the support of the 81 Labour MPs that he needs to mount a challenge, though the timing remains uncertain. Burnham’s allies have already been lobbying cabinet ministers to persuade Starmer to agree to an orderly transition.

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If Starmer chooses to fight, something the prime minister has indicated he would do, Burnham is the clear favorite. He would beat the premier 59% to 37% in a head-to-head contest, a YouGov poll of Labour members found in May.  

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The campaign, however offers a warning: his net popularity has fallen by 15 points since last month, according to Ipsos and by 20 points in YouGov polling, as the prospect of him taking power has become more real and his views have come under closer scrutiny. Nevertheless, he remains far ahead of Starmer.

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For Labour’s MPs, the main concern is whether replacing a prime minister after just two years in office would solve the problem that has consumed the party: how to stop Farage. Since Labour’s landslide general election win in July 2024, the party has plunged in the polls, with Farage’s Reform leading national surveys for more than a year now.