Bullish futures positioning hints at upside in large-cap stocks

As key indices continue to gyrate in a band, various stocks have been performing better, riding the bullish wave in pockets of the mid- and small-cap segments. Analysts said some of that optimism is rubbing off on select large-cap stocks, which have seen a buildup of bullish bets in their futures. A look at the stocks that could gain in the days ahead based on the futures build-up and technical indicators.

INDUSIND BANK

Change in Open Interest in July Series: 0.04% Change in Price in July Series: 3.45%

Rationale: The stock witnessed a breakout from a congestion zone, accompanied by a significant rise in volumes on July 3, setting up immediate targets in the Rs 1,050– 1,120 range, said Vipin Kumar, AVP – Derivatives and Technical Research at Globe Capital Market.

“The breakout was well supported by strong rollovers of over 96%, alongside a long buildup over the past three consecutive trading sessions,” he said. Kumar suggests adding long positions in IndusInd Bank around the Rs 960– 970 levels, with a stop-loss at Rs 930 and a price target of Rs 1,050.

NALCO

Change in Open Interest in July Series: 1.88% Change in Price in July Series: 4.62%

Rationale: The stock staged a strong reversal of its June downtrend from the 200-day EMA around Rs 337–338, closing over 4.5% higher on strong intraday volumes, said Akshay Bhagwat, Associate Director – Derivatives Research at JM Financial Services. The rise in open interest alongside the sharp price gain points to a long build-up and selective short covering, while the RSI has emerged from near oversold territory, signalling that selling momentum has exhausted for now. Traders can enter in the Rs 345–348 range, with targets of Rs 371 and Rs 385, and a stop-loss at Rs 329.

SHREE CEMENT
Change in Open Interest in July Series: 1% Change in Price in July Series: 6%

Rationale: Shree Cement ended the previous expiry on a positive note, rebounding from lower levels as futures open interest declined 7%, while recording a strong rollover of 91%, said Amit Trivedi, SVP – Institutional Equities Research at Yes Securities.

“The stock has decisively surpassed the critical Rs 26,000 resistance zone and continues to sustain above it, indicating improving market sentiment. The formation of multiple bullish candlestick patterns suggests a favourable shift in the trading range,” he said.

Trivedi said sustained strength above Rs 26,500 is likely to reinforce bullish momentum and drive the stock towards the Rs 28,300–28,500 zone, with stop loss at Rs 26,100.

HDFC AMC
Change in Open Interest in July Series: -1.88% Change in Price in July Series: 1.18%

Rationale: HDFC AMC witnessed a bullish breakout from the downwardsloping trendline, said Kumar. “The breakout is well-supported by strong rollovers accompanied by short covering in past four consecutive trading sessions,” he said. Kumar recommends adding long positions in the stock around Rs 2,780- 2,740 levels with a stop loss at Rs 2,640 for the price target of Rs 3,000.

ADANI ENERGY SOLUTIONS
Change in Open Interest in July Series: 3.2% Change in Price in July Series: 1%

Rationale: Bhagwat said the stock has witnessed a firm trend build-up since the beginning of the year. “The broader setup indicates possible accumulation, with the stage set for an upside breakout,” he said.

Traders can buy in the Rs 1,545–1,570 range, with targets of Rs 1,675 and Rs 1,710, while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 1,450.

NESTLÉ INDIA
Change in Open Interest in July Series: 5% Change in Price in July Series: 3.55%

Rationale: Trivedi said that after a two-month consolidation following its retreat from record highs, Nestlé India has regained strength by surpassing its recent swing high, signalling a resumption of upward momentum.

“The stock has established a strong support base around Rs 1,400, while sustaining above Rs 1,450 would further validate trend continuation,” he said. Trivedi expects the stock to advance towards the Rs 1,600 zone, supported by its constructive price structure and improving momentum indicators, while maintaining a stop loss at Rs 1,375.

ONGC
Change in Open Interest in July Series: -0.3% Change in Price in July Series: 0.7%

Rationale: Bhagwat said the first three sessions of July have formed a definitive multi-day base at a major horizontal demand zone of Rs 228–230.

“An oversold RSI and derivative action at the support zone indicate a relief rally pullback in the making,” he said. Bhagwat recommends entering in the Rs 234–237 range, with targets of Rs 247 and Rs 257, while maintaining a stoploss at Rs 224.