Broncos receive lackluster 53.6% playoff projection from ESPN for three reasons

The Denver Broncos are coming off a near Super Bowl appearance last season, and their fan base has every right to be optimistic about their odds to win it all this season.

On defense, the unit is still as good as it was last season, and their offense added Jaylen Waddle this offseason in a blockbuster trade. However, not everyone is viewing the Broncos so favorably.

ESPN's Seth Walder shared a projection for the Broncos playoff odds this upcoming season, and they came in at a lackluster 53.6%. Walder shared three reasons why ESPN's projection model believes regression is coming for Denver in 2026.

Broncos 53.6% playoff chance has three reasons for potential regression

1. One-score games

"One major red flag was the Broncos' 12-3 record (including playoffs) in one-score games last season -- a rate that is unlikely to continue," Walder writes.

Winning close games like the Broncos did last season is not something that happens every year. A few swings of bad luck, and the Broncos could go from the top team in the AFC West to a fringe Wild Card team at best.

Of course, this team is still good, but there's a chance that some regression comes for Denver in the form of their one-score game wins turning into losses.

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2. Defense volatility

"... Also, like Seattle, Denver is led by a stellar defense. And even though that unit looks good again on paper, odds are it won't be quite as good as it was in 2025," Walder writes.

Last year's defense was incredible, as they set the franchise record for sacks in a season and were one of the best units in the entire league.

But defensive productivity is more volatile than offensive production year-over-year. So, like the Seattle Seahawks, the Broncos' playoff and Super Bowl odds take a little bit of a hit due to their reliance on the defensive side of the ball.

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3. Bo Nix's injury

"Plus, like Mahomes, there is some Bo Nix injury risk baked in after the quarterback had a second procedure on his right ankle in April," Walder writes.

The quarterback position is the most important one on the entire roster, as the Broncos fandom knows fully well after their massively unfortunate postseason exit.

Nix is a good quarterback, but he's coming off an injury and might not be at 100% during the upcoming 2026 season. It's an issue for players in every sport, as the year right after an injury can sometimes be a little bit of a struggle.

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Broncos have just 53.6% chance to make the playoffs

The playoff odds for the Broncos, according to ESPN, place them behind the Los Angeles Chargers (65.1%), New England Patriots (61.1%), Houston Texans (57.9%), and the Jacksonville Jaguars (54.0%).

For a team that made it to the doorstep of the Super Bowl, and if Nix didn't get hurt, might've even made it there, it's a very lackluster and even frustrating projection from ESPN.

But, with the Nix injury likely to linger, the one-score game luck likely to run out, and the typical volatility of a defense year-over-year, the Broncos are a serious regression candidate for the 2026 season.

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