9 hours ago
1
Economic Confidence on the Right Gets Wobbly Again
With only five and a half months to go before the midterm elections, Republican optimism about the economy is struggling against the tides of high gasoline prices, the renewed rise in inflation, and a market increasingly convinced that interest rates are not coming down soon.
Republicans have not suddenly turned gloomy. They are still relatively optimistic about the economy. But the latest Economist/YouGov polling suggests that the economic optimism on the right has become less steady, less overwhelming, and less able to offset the deep pessimism among Democrats, liberals, and Harris voters.
The polls show a roller-coaster ride among Trump-aligned voters, who moved from strong optimism in February to a spring slump, then to a late-April recovery, and then to another retreat in May.
The biggest moves have been in the answers to the survey question asking whether the economy is getting better or worse. This may be the most politically important economic question in the poll. Voters can tolerate an imperfect economy if they believe it is improving. They are less forgiving when they begin to doubt the direction.
In February, MAGA supporters said the economy was getting better rather than worse by 63 percent to 12 percent. Trump voters were 52 percent to 20 percent. Conservatives were 50 percent to 23 percent. Republicans were 49 percent to 18 percent.
Then came the war and rising gas prices. In the March 6-9 poll, MAGA supporters were still positive but less so, at 54 percent better and 12 percent worse, a nine-point decline for the optimistic view. Trump voters slipped to 49 percent better and 21 percent worse. Conservatives fell to 48 percent better and 20 percent worse. Republicans were 49 percent better and 18 percent worse. The Republican topline held up, but the broader right had already started to lose some of its February momentum.
After a small bump in April, when hostilities seemed to be winding down, that deterioration has continued. By May, the ranks of the optimists had slipped again. MAGA supporters were down to 47 percent better and 15 percent worse. Republicans were 39 percent better and 25 percent worse. Conservatives were 37 percent better and 26 percent worse. Trump voters were 38 percent better and 24 percent worse.
Put another way, the net “getting better” score—the share saying the economy is getting better minus the share saying it is getting worse—has fallen sharply across the right. Among MAGA supporters, it dropped from plus 51 in February to plus 42 in early March, recovered to plus 45 in late April, and then fell to plus 32 in May. Among Trump voters, it went from plus 32 to plus 28, then plus 21, and finally plus 14. Conservatives moved from plus 27 to plus 28, then plus 22, and down to plus 11. Republicans held steady at plus 31 in early March, but then slipped to plus 26 in late April and plus 14 in May.
Less Negative on Personal Finances
The personal-finance numbers are more reassuring for Republicans, although they also show the late-April recovery fading. In February, MAGA supporters said they were better off rather than worse off than a year ago by 26 percent to 16 percent. Trump voters were 27 percent to 19 percent, conservatives were 24 percent to 20 percent, and Republicans were 25 percent to 19 percent.
Those numbers didn’t take a hit from the war and actually improved by late April, when MAGA supporters were 34 percent better off and just 12 percent worse off, Republicans were 33 percent to 16 percent, Trump voters were 31 percent to 17 percent, and conservatives were 30 percent to 21 percent.
By May, however, the improvement had mostly disappeared. MAGA supporters were back to 26 percent better off and 16 percent worse off. Republicans were 25 percent to 18 percent. Trump voters were 24 percent to 19 percent. Conservatives were 24 percent to 17 percent. The right is still net positive on personal finances, but the late-April bounce did not last.
The outlook for the next year remains more favorable. In February, 46 percent of MAGA supporters expected to be better off financially a year from now, compared with just five percent who expected to be worse off. Republicans were 39 percent better versus eight percent worse; Trump voters were 42 percent better versus nine percent worse; conservatives were 39 percent better versus 12 percent worse.
By late April, optimism had strengthened: MAGA supporters were 55 percent better versus five percent worse, Republicans were 46 percent to nine percent, Trump voters were 46 percent to 10 percent, and conservatives were 49 percent to 10 percent. May, however, brought a serious retreat. Only 47 percent of MAGA supporters say they are better off versus seven percent worse, Republicans 39 percent to 10 percent, Trump voters 41 percent to 11 percent, and conservatives 39 percent to 10 percent. The rally-around-the-flag effect we saw in this measure has completely faded.
How does the right feel about the current state of the economy? In February, 56 percent of MAGA supporters, 50 percent of Trump voters, 47 percent of Republicans, and 44 percent of conservatives rated the economy as excellent or good. By late April, the current-state numbers had recovered and improved, with 62 percent of MAGA supporters, 54 percent of Republicans, 52 percent of Trump voters, and 49 percent of conservatives giving the economy positive marks.
The most recent polling results suggest only some deterioration on this measure. In the May 9-11 Economist/YouGov poll, the share rating the economy excellent or good fell back to 56 percent among MAGA supporters, 48 percent among Trump voters, 45 percent among conservatives, and 45 percent among Republicans. That’s around where things were before the war.
Trump’s voters still think the economy is better than the rest of the country does. Unlike the majority of liberals and Democrats, Americans on the right do not see us in a recession or on the verge of one. They’ve got the facts on their side. Unemployment is historically low, layoffs are scarce, consumer spending is resilient, and AI is driving an investment boom. But confidence in the future has been shaken.
That is the political danger for Trump and Republicans. The left’s pessimism was already baked in. What has changed is that the right’s optimism is no longer as strong a counterweight.
English (US)