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Last week, I hit my bold predictions for the East, picking some breakout players and an unconventional NBA champion. Now it's onto the West, where beyond the rock-solid Thunder and Spurs, anything could happen.
The race for the No. 3 through 8 playoff seeds is wide open, and some good teams are going to miss out. Others will overperform due to players taking a leap, savvy trades, or better-than-expected chemistry.
These predictions are bold, which means that I'm not expecting them to all hit. But there's a better chance of these things happening than they're being given credit for. Here's one item for each team in the West, ranked from mildest to hottest take.
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Bold predictions for each team in the West
Oklahoma City: Cason Wallace will extend on a deal that looks crazy but is a great value
Wallace has until late October to work out an extension with the Thunder or else become a restricted free agent next offseason. Either, way, he’s too valuable to lose.
Four years and $100 million may seem wild for a player who averaged 8.6 points per game last season. The Thunder would be wise to lock Wallace up to something around that number before he has an even better year and improves his market. He’s an advanced stats darling that dominates his minutes due to his elite point-of-attack defense and his ability to hit just enough open 3’s on offense. My salary model has him as one of the sneaky steals of next year’s free agency class, at a valuation of $35 million if he hits free agency. He won’t get that in the real world, but he’ll be worth it.
Minnesota: Jonathan Kuminga will start, but Ayo Dosunmu will close
The Wolves needed a power forward. They got one late in the summer with Jonathan Kuminga. He’s expected to start games for them, providing some size and scoring ability.
Ayo Dosunmu is the higher-paid and better fit alongside the Wolves’ starters. Dosunmu may not be able to bang with bigger players, but he’s a good point-of-attack defender that can help the Wolves hide LaMelo Ball, he’s a much better shooter than Kuminga, and he’s a transition demon that can put the pressure on when opponents are tired at the end of games. He also rises to big moments. He’ll be the guy that Chris Finch puts in for the end of games.
Utah: The Jazz will trade for another center
The Jazz increased their stockpile of draft assets this summer, getting two first-rounders and two pick swaps from the Lakers in a lopsided trade for Walker Kessler. They have 11 second-rounders available to trade. And they have no incentive to be bad again this season given that the Grizzlies have the right to swap picks with them. It’s time to hit the gas.
Many are predicting the Jazz to be a playoff team this season. They still need to add depth to get there, and trading for a solid center might be the push that they need. Ryan Kalkbrenner is a poor man’s Kessler and may be available if Hannes Steinbach looks ready for more minutes. Myles Turner and Brook Lopez are veteran options that could be had. There are stopgap options out there, and the Jazz should be aggressive in pursuing one.
Portland: Yang Hansen will shed the bust label
Yang Hansen was the surprise of the 2025 draft after being selected 16th overall. He looked overmatched in a rookie year where he was only able to get on the court for 300 minutes and shot 31 percent from the field.
There are signs of talent, though. Yang has played well through two summer leagues. He doubled that 31 percent from the field in the G-League regular season, where he averaged 17.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game. He’s looked great during his FIBA play this summer as well.
Yang was always going to be a raw prospect. With a season to get acclimated to a completely new country, he should start to show more in his second year.
Phoenix: Collin Gillespie will be starting over Jalen Green by January
Jalen Green is the presumptive starter for the Suns and the more talented offensive player. He's also making $36.2 million to Collin Gillespie's $10.7 million. It would be a tough sell to get Green coming off the bench.
That is the right move for the Suns though, who could use Gillespie's steady hand and deadeye shooting in their starting lineup. With five seasons under his belt, Green looks more like a microwave bench scorer than a starter, while Gillespie is the type of role player that spreads the floor and makes life easier for Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, and Miles Bridges.
Gillespie, Brooks, and Booker lineups were a +7.7 net rating last year, as compared to the +5.8 for Green, Brooks, and Booker. That trend of Gillespie with the starters outperforming Green with that same group will probably continue, and Jordan Ott should make a change some time during the regular season.
Los Angeles Clippers: Max Strus will be flipped for more picks at the deadline
The Clippers made a nice trade in picking Strus up for the low cost of one second-round pick. The 30-year-old wing doesn’t make much sense long-term though in a crowded rotation and on an expiring contract. And the Clippers badly need to stock up on any draft assets that they can after being stripped of five first-round picks.
Strus’ game translates well into playoff settings, and good teams are always in need of players like him who can defend and shoot at a high level. He should be off the team in February and return a few second-rounders in the process.
MORE: What's next for Clippers after Kawhi Leonard punishment
Sacramento: Maxime Raynaud will be the best big man in his rookie class
Raynaud believes that he is the best big man from the 2025 draft. The rest of the world is going to see why soon.
Raynaud didn’t draw much attention for his play on a Kings team going nowhere last year. He’s not a good defender, which led to him falling to the second round of the draft. When he did get some opportunities though, he showed that his scoring and rebounding at Stanford absolutely translates to the NBA.
Raynaud has good size, Jokic-like touch near the rim, nice passing, and some shooting chops. He’s giving Isaiah Hartenstein a run for his money in the race for best big man push shot in the league. He’s worth keeping an eye on. The defense is always going to hold him back, but his high feel and skill give him a higher ceiling than he’s being given credit for.
Denver: Nuggets will trade Christian Braun for more depth
Denver is currently only $3 million into the second apron and deep into the luxury tax. Their bleak financial picture already forced them to lose Peyton Watson. They need to continue to shed payroll while adding talent, which is a tough needle to thread.
Watson’s departure did bring one asset to make that goal easier to accomplish, The Nuggets should be looking to trade the 2031 first-round pick that they received from the Cavs. Packaging it with Braun, who is on the first year of a bloated five-year, $125 million deal, is their best avenue towards making a real championship run.
Denver still badly needs to add to its bench. My favorite off-season trade is to move Braun alongside Zeke Nnaji in exchange for Isaac Okoro and Jalen Smith. That deal would save the Nuggets a ton of money long-term, getting them under the second apron and addressing their biggest weaknesses in point-of-attack defense and backup big man depth.
Golden State: Gui Santos will earn votes for Most Improved Player
After starting 30 games last year for the Warriors, Santos should have the full-time role this season. He was nothing short of outstanding in those 30 games, averaging 14.7 points 5.6 rebounds, and 3.6 assists on above-average efficiency. He has a great motor and his all-around game fills whatever Golden State needs on a nightly basis.
Santos signed an extension last February that will make him one of the steals of the league, at $15 million over the next three seasons. He’s been completely off the national radar. That should change this year.
Memphis: Zach Edey will win Most Improved Player
Santos may get some votes for Most Improved, but Edey is my pick to win the award. He’s quelled some of those draft day concerns about his defense and old-school post game, moving better than expected and still dominating near the basket. He was a workhorse at Purdue, missing only one game. A troublesome left ankle has limited him in the NBA, but offseason surgery will hopefully fix the problem.
When Edey has been on the floor, he’s been terrific. He averaged 19 points and 15.5 rebounds per 36 minutes last season. He’s a great complement next to rookie Cameron Boozer, providing the rim protection that Boozer lacks. Those two should be a formidable frontcourt for the Grizzlies going forward.
MORE: Six breakout candidates for 2026-27 season
New Orleans: The Pelicans will improve 10 spots in defense
The Pelicans were 23rd in defense last season and 27th two years ago. There is a lot of room for improvement. Jamahl Mosley should help set the foundation for improvement quickly.
Mosley took over a Magic team that was ranked 26th in the previous year. It took him one season to get them to average. By his third year, they were elite.
Mosley will have his hands full with some clear negative defenders on the roster and young guys that need minutes to develop. But effort will be mandatory, and he should get them to overperform relative to their talent on that end of the floor.
Houston: Rockets will be a top three team in the West
The Rockets currently have the fifth-highest over/under win total in the West, at 46.5 games. They should finish higher than that Vegas prediction.
Houston had two of the sneaky best free agent signings this summer, returning Tari Eason on a mega-value contract and stealing a rejuvenated Marcus Smart from the Lakers. They will also be getting back two of their most important players, Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams, from season-ending injuries. Those additions should have them improving upon last year’s 52-win performance rather than experiencing the steep decline Vegas expects.
Los Angeles Lakers: Bronny James will be a solid NBA reserve
With LeBron gone, this is the year Bronny will sink or swim based on his own merits. He’s faced a ton of criticism after the Lakers took him with the No. 55 pick in the 2024 draft and gave him an $8 million contract over four years. He has a good chance to overperform that deal if he can give them good rotation minutes this season.
After an awful rookie season, Bronny quietly developed into a decent 3-point shooter, hitting 39 percent of his 3’s for the Lakers and 38 percent over the course of a bigger G-League sample. If he can reliably hit that shot, he becomes a good 3-and-D guard with some secondary playmaking chops to slot in next to weaker defenders in Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. Marcus Smart showed last season how badly the Lakers need that type of player. With Smart gone, it would be a huge win if Bronny could give them 70 percent of what Smart provided.
Dallas: Sergio de Larrea will make an All-Rookie team
De Larrea was taken with the 25th pick. Twelve guards were selected above him. He will outperform a good handful of them.
De Larrea may only be 20 years old, but he has a good chance to play a lot of minutes on a Mavericks team that doesn’t have much depth at point guard behind Kyrie Irving. He already reads the court at a high level, as he showed during Summer League where he averaged 8.8 assists over his four games.
He also couldn’t make a shot in Las Vegas, which shouldn’t be too much of a concern given his 40.7 percent shooting from 3 while playing for Valencia last year. He’s going to throw a lot of fun passes to Cooper Flagg, which should get him some recognition at the end of the year.
San Antonio: Spurs will cruise to the Finals again after trading De’Aaron Fox
Fox was an All-Star last season, and the Spurs are trying to win a championship. Trading him wouldn’t make much sense from that angle. But Dylan Harper’s emergence has made Fox expendable, and Fox quietly has one of the worst contracts in the league, which is only getting worse over time. Four years from now, he’ll have a player option for over $70 million.
The Spurs will be very expensive by then, with extensions for Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and Harper kicking in. It’s better to address the Fox issue looming in the background sooner rather than later. They have enough talent to make it back to the Finals this year without him, and they will be way better positioned for multiple runs down the line.
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