Bitcoin’s institutional shift drives Bernstein’s US$150,000 call

This illustration photograph taken on November 22, 2024 in Istanbul shows a coin imitation of the Bitcoin crypto currency arranged beside a screen displaying a trading chart. Photo by OZAN KOSE/AFP via Getty Images

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Bitcoin has likely reached a floor and could rise to US$150,000 by the end of 2026, according to Bernstein, which argues the cryptocurrency is being reshaped by a steady shift toward institutional ownership and financing.

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The Wall Street firm says a transition from a market once dominated by retail speculation to one increasingly anchored by exchange-traded funds, corporate balance sheets and structured capital is altering how Bitcoin behaves. And it’s making downturns less disorderly and potentially extending the current cycle.

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Bitcoin’s recent performance offers a test of that thesis. Prices, currently trading around US$70,000, fell by more than 50 per cent from their peak, yet the selloff didn’t trigger the kind of cascading liquidation seen in earlier cycles.

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“Bitcoin will continue to outperform driven by strong institutional demand from ETFs which have been resilient through the market correction (year-to-date outflows have reversed) and new institutional on-ramps from banks offering Bitcoin financial services,” the firm said in a Tuesday report.

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“Bitcoin market structure has matured” relative to earlier boom-and-bust cycles, Bernstein added.

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Companies such as Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. have continued to accumulate Bitcoin through the downturn, using equity and preferred securities to fund purchases. This growing link between crypto markets and capital markets is creating a more persistent source of demand — and a different set of risks, Bernstein says.

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Strategy alone has bought the token at a pace exceeding new issuance this year, effectively absorbing a meaningful share of incremental supply even as prices declined.

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A prolonged downturn in Bitcoin, particularly as convertible debt matures, could force firms like Strategy to refinance on less favorable terms or sell holdings to meet obligations, while a pullback in capital markets could limit their ability to raise fresh funds.

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So far, however, those pressures have not derailed accumulation. “Strategy enjoys a track record of risk management, living through deep Bitcoin correction cycles, and not over-extending itself on debt,” the report says.

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Bernstein pointed to a concentration of ownership among long-term holders, with 60 per cent of Bitcoin supply inactive for more than a year. That reflects a base of investors less sensitive to short-term price swings, helping to dampen volatility during drawdowns.

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ETFs are also becoming a key source of stability for the digital asset, holding about 6.1% of total Bitcoin supply — a shift Bernstein says is positive for its ownership structure.

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Together, these trends challenge fears that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle peaked in 2025, Bernstein says, pointing to a more extended bull run that could end with a potential high of around US$200,000 at the end of 2027.

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