Australian Open predictions: Taylor Fritz vs. Stan Wawrinka odds, picks Friday

Stan Wawrinka’s 24-year tennis career will come to a close in 2026, and Friday night could be the last time we see the Swiss at the Australian Open, a tournament he won back in 2014.

Wawrinka is set to take on Taylor Fritz in Round 3 at Rod Laver Arena, and he will close as a massive underdog against the American.

The 40-year-old has never been a massive fan favorite in his career, but the crowd should be behind him, knowing that the odds suggest that this will be his final match Down Under.

Wawrinka is a +810 underdog to advance past Fritz on Friday evening.

Taylor Fritz vs. Stan Wawrinka odds, picks

You can no longer suggest that Fritz is a one-note player these days.

The Californian still depends on his mighty serve to win matches, but he’s improved his all-around game enough to become a fixture in the top-10 of the ATP rankings.

That said, Fritz still has a tendency to lose his level during matches, especially in the best-of-five format.

Handed a cushy draw that saw him take on Valentin Royer in Round 1 and Vit Kopriva in Round 2, Fritz has not had to break much of a sweat to get to this point.

He did drop a set against Royer, and fended off a tie-breaker against Kopriva, but he’s yet to face any real resistance.

Taylor Fritz mid-swing during a tennis match. AFP via Getty Images

Wawrinka should provide some in Round 3.

Although he’s well past his best-by date, Wawrinka gutted out victories in the first two rounds in Melbourne.

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The three-time Grand Slam champion defeated the always game Laslo Djere in four sets in his opener, and then battled back to win a five-set thriller against 21-year-old Arthur Gea in the Round of 64.

His mobility may be zapped, but Wawrinka’s motor is still running, and his backhand remains an exquisite weapon to unleash.

He’s also not one to be overwhelmed by massive servers, and can rely on his guile and craft to earn him points when he’s on the backfoot.

In all likelihood, Fritz will be able to get through this match. He’s the better player right now, and he’s taking on a player who struggles to move around the court. However, don’t expect things to come easy for the favorite — especially early on.

If Wawrinka is going to pull this off, he’ll need to catch Fritz early and build a lead. That should mean that the swan-songer throws everything he’s got at the World No. 9 in the opening set.

The Play: Wawrinka to win the first set (+320, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.