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(Bloomberg) — Australian business confidence snapped three months of gains as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and persistent energy price strength weighed on the outlook.
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Business confidence slid 1 point to minus-6 points in July, a National Australia Bank Ltd. survey showed on Tuesday. Conditions — a measure of profitability, sales and employment — advanced 1 point to 4 points.
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“Despite improved outcomes relative to those seen at the peak of the impact of the Middle East crisis, the survey shows that the elevated uncertainty has continued to weigh on business confidence,” NAB said. “Cost pressures amid a softer forward demand outlook suggest continued pressure on margins.”
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The result comes as the Reserve Bank is expected to stand pat today after raising interest rates at its first three meetings of the year. The RBA is trying to rein in stubbornly strong inflation and began tightening policy even before the US attack on Iran unleashed a global energy shock.
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NAB pointed out that cost pressures “clearly remain an issue for business; labor cost growth, which was not affected by the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, has now risen to its highest level since January 2025, while purchase cost and product prices growth are at or above their pre-conflict levels.”
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Other details:
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- Capacity utilization rose 0.9 percentage point to 83%, driven mainly by increases in the finance, business and property and wholesale industries
- Both the forward orders and capex measures remained weak in July
- Purchase cost growth rose 0.2 point, partially unwinding the easing seen in June
- Labor costs growth rose a further 0.5 point to 2.2% in quarterly terms, likely due to the minimum wage decision which took effect on July 1
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“Overall, the business survey shows that while most survey indicators have largely normalized since the beginning of the Middle East conflict there remains a soft underbelly to the survey’s data,” NAB said.
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