ATP Kitzbuhel Finals: Bublik vs. Cazaux odds, prediction, and pick

Are we finally seeing the rise of Alexander Bublik?

Always considered one of the most talented players on the ATP Tour, Bublik’s inconsistency and temperament held him back from taking a leap and being a real force on the circuit.

The Kazakh would pick up titles here and there, but he was never consistent enough to crack the top 10 and become a threat to win a Grand Slam.

That may be changing.

Bublik won a title at ATP Gstaad last weekend, and now has a chance to go back-to-back on the clay with a win over Arthur Cazaux in Kitzbuhel. A victory over the Frenchman would give him three trophies in his last four tournaments.

As you’d expect, Bublik is a clear -300 favorite over Cazaux on Saturday morning.

In true Bublik fashion, his one blip during this run of form came in a first-round defeat to Jaume Munar at Wimbledon, a tournament that should suit his game better than any other event.

But since then, Bublik has only dropped one set. He is a perfect 6-0 in Kitzbuhel.

Arthur Cazaux is in his first ATP Tour Final. AP

One of Bublik’s straight-set victories in Gstaad came against Cazaux in a 6-1, 7-5 whitewash.

In addition to his red-hot form and the recent head-to-head advantage, Bublik also has an experience edge over Cazaux. 

This is the 13th ATP Final for the big-serving Bublik, but just the first for Cazaux. The former is 6-7 in his career in showpieces, but he’s won five of his last six matches with a trophy on the line.

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When Bublik has his game working, he can beat anybody on the planet. And right now, he could be in the form of his life.

Not only should bettors back Bublik to win in straight sets on Saturday morning, but they should also consider a bet on Bublik to win the US Open at 100/1.

The Play: Bublik -1.5 sets (-150, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.