ATP Finals 2025: Carlos Alcaraz, Taylor Fritz's qualification scenarios with both SF spots still up for grabs

After the completion of two matches, all four players from Group Jimmy Connors are still in contention for the two semifinal spots at the ATP Finals 2025. Carlos Alcaraz with two wins remains in prime position to take one of the spots, followed by Taylor Fritz and Lorenzo Musetti with one win each. Despite losing both of his matches, Alex de Minaur isn't out of the running just yet.

Alcaraz will face Musetti, while Fritz will take on de Minaur in the last two matches of this group. A win for the Spaniard, whether in two sets or three, will put him in the semifinals as the group leader. He can also qualify and top the group with a three-set loss coupled with a three-set win for Fritz.

Alcaraz will get out of the group stage in second position if he loses to Musetti and de Minaur beats Fritz. He's also in danger of being eliminated if he loses in straight sets and Fritz wins in straight sets.

Even if he wins his match, de Minaur will also depend on Alcaraz to help him out. His win over Fritz and the Spaniard's win over Musetti will mean three players with a 1-2 record in the group stage. It would then come down to the individual head-to-head along with percentage of sets and games won. Musetti needs to beat Alcaraz, ideally in straight sets, in order of have a shot at making the last four.

For Fritz, a win over de Minaur by any margin should be enough as long as Alcaraz also wins his match. If the Spaniard loses his match, then a straight sets win would be beneficial for the American. However, in this scenario, three players would be tied with a 2-1 record, and tie-breaker rules would come into effect.

If Fritz loses his match, Alcaraz's win can still keep him in contention. Although that would mean he would be in a three-way tie with a 1-2 record, and tie-break rules would decide the second semifinalist. The odds are stacked in the Spaniard's favor, who would also achieve the year-end No. 1 ranking with another win.

Carlos Alcaraz needs one more win at the ATP Finals 2025 to clinch the year-end No. 1 ranking

Carlos Alcaraz at the ATP Finals 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Carlos Alcaraz is on the verge of claiming the year-end No. 1 ranking. If he wins his next match against Lorenzo Musetti at the ATP Finals 2025, then he will end the year atop the summit regardless of what happens later in the tournament.

If Alcaraz loses to Musetti and still advances to the semifinals, then he would need to win his semifinal match in order to retain the top ranking. If he loses in the semifinals, then Jannik Sinner could claim the No. 1 ranking for the rest of the year.

Sinner needs to win the ATP Finals, that too while going undefeated during the group stage, in order to have a shot at the year-end No. 1 ranking. However, he also needs the Spaniard to lose the rest of his matches. Both are bidding to finish the year atop the rankings for the second time. Alcaraz attained the feat in 2022, while Sinner did the same last year.

Edited by Rohit