As Canadians ditch U.S. real estate, some predict a flood north

Canadian purchases of U.S. property declined an average of 14.5 per cent annually between 2019 and 2024. Photo by THE CANADIAN PRESS Jonathan Hayward

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As more Canadians abandon the U.S. real estate market in response to tensions between the two countries, millions of dollars could be returning to the Canadian market.

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Canadians represent the largest share of foreign buyers in the U.S., accounting for 7,100 homes purchased in the country in 2024, primarily in vacation spots, according to the National Association of Realtors’ 2024 report.

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But given the trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada, more Canadians are looking to invest their money domestically.

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A recent report from the RAM Development Group shows that 81 per cent of Canadians are focused on keeping their money in Canada. Thirty-four per cent of respondents suggest the change in spending habits is indefinite.

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As Canadians who own property in the U.S. now reconsider their purchase, it could mean a serious boom for Canada’s sluggish real estate market.

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A recent report from the real estate platform Zoocasa Inc. estimates that if 100 Canadian buyers left a single U.S. state, it would result in $80 million in lost transaction volume.

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Canadian purchases of U.S. property declined an average of 14.5 per cent annually between 2019 and 2024, according to Zoocasa, with 7,100 marking the lowest number of transactions in 15 years — even lower than the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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If this trend continues, Florida alone would see a drop in transaction volume of more than US$653 million in just two years, while Arizona would experience a drop of $366 million.

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“Other popular vacation destinations for Canadians, including Arizona, Hawaii, California, and New York, will also lose hundreds of millions of dollars if Canadian buyers continue to retreat from the market,” the report states.

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There are early signs that the trend may continue. An April survey from the employment platform Humi Inc. shows that half of Canadians who were considering a move to the U.S. are now rethinking their plans in light of tensions between Canada and the U.S.

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Zoocasa also predicts Canada’s recreational real estate market will see a bump if this trend continues.

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“While returning buyers could add to competition in already tight markets, many are likely to be retirees or snowbirds who would focus their purchases in vacation areas,” the report states. “This could revive Ontario’s cottage country, which has seen a slow start to the year.”

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Some have already priced in an increase in cottage valuations as more Canadians look domestically.

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Royal LePage’s 2025 Spring Recreational Property Report predicted the mean price for Canadian cottages would climb four per cent this year. The report also stated that 70 per cent of brokers are experiencing at least the same demand compared to last year.

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Zoocasa also notes, however, that Canadian snowbirds could opt to buy a second property outside of Canada and the U.S altogether.

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