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South Alabama quarterback Bishop Davenport.
AP
Midweek college football games are something to be savored, so don’t thumb your nose at the three-game slate we’re staring at Tuesday night.
Arkansas State vs. South Alabama may look ugly to casual observers, but to the die-hards, there’s nothing quite like getting a couple of plays down and heading to the sofa, knowing you have no idea what to expect when these two terrible teams meet.
The oddsmakers are expecting this night to belong to the Jaguars, but it’s hard to trust either side to get the job done Tuesday night.
So let’s talk about the total, which is currently sitting at 60.5 points.
Arkansas State vs. South Alabama odds, prediction
The Sun Belt had a reputation for being a league full of high-flying offenses.
College football fanatics became enamored with “The Fun Belt,” but the transfer portal, NIL and realignment has taken away some of the offensive chaos we got used to in the SBC.
The Sun Belt still features some teams that can light it up on any given Saturday, but it also boasts some really poor offenses, like Arkansas State and South Alabama.
The Red Wolves are averaging 19.6 points per game (105th in FBS), 337 yards per contest (99th) and 4.4 yards per play (125th).
Arkansas State quarterback Jaylen Raynor. APYou could argue those numbers are skewed by meetings with Arkansas and Iowa State, but Arkansas State’s offense still ranks 99th in SP+, which adjusts for the opponent.
South Alabama’s offensive numbers are a tier better than Arkansas State’s, but the Jaguars are not going to be confused with the 2000 St. Louis Rams.
And the one huge edge the Jaguars own in this matchup could actually help us get to the window with a play on the Under 60.5.
South Alabama loves to run the ball — they rank 12th in FBS with a 60.1 percent rush rate — and the Red Wolves really struggle at stopping rushing attacks.
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That should lead to a run-heavy program from South Alabama, which will keep the clock moving and shorten the game. Always good news for a play on the under.
In short, this number is just too high for a game between two very uninspiring offenses.
The Play: Under 60.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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