Arch Manning mock draft projection: Where would Texas QB get picked in 2026 NFL Draft?

Before Arch Manning even played a snap in 2025, his NFL Draft decision was the center of speculation. Would he really bypass the chance to be the No. 1 overall pick to return for another season at Texas?

As Manning struggled throughout the early portion of the season, that question answered itself. His draft stock became much more uncertain, making it obvious a return to school was the most likely scenario.

Even a late-season surge wasn't enough to convince Manning to start his professional career, but it may have been enough to put him back on the radar as a top prospect in a thin quarterback class.

Here's a look at where Manning might have landed if he entered the 2026 NFL Draft and where he is projected to be taken in 2027.

MORE: Ranking quarterbacks for the 2027 NFL Draft, from Arch Manning and Dante Moore 

Arch Manning mock draft projection

Manning's stock is a bit of a mystery because, unlike Dante Moore, he spent most of the season outside of most mock drafts and projections due to the full expectation he would return to school. Still, it's fair to say such a thin quarterback class and a strong finish to his 2025 season might have been enough to make Manning a 2026 first-round pick.

That doesn't mean Manning would have been the No. 2 pick or anything particularly close. He has the physical traits, but any team that would have drafted him would have had to rely on such a small sample size of success.

Manning threw only four touchdowns to three interceptions in his first four games against Power Four opponents in 2025, throwing for less than 200 yards in three of those starts. At the time, he looked more like a project than anything.

Manning finished the season on a hot streak, totaling 19 touchdowns and two interceptions over his final six starts and showing more confidence with his legs. The NFL Draft is still an exercise in potential, and Manning's potential likely would have been enough to put him in the first-round conversation, perhaps ahead of Ty Simpson but likely behind Fernando Mendoza.

A full season of that production could make Manning a contender for the No. 1 overall pick in 2027, though he might face tough competition with next year's crop of quarterbacks expected to be much deeper.

NFL DRAFT RANKINGS 2026: QBs | WRs | TEs | EDGE | RBs

When is Arch Manning eligible for the NFL Draft?

Manning was eligible for the 2026 NFL Draft, as he started out at Texas in 2023 despite not becoming the Longhorns' full-time starter until 2025. He ultimately followed in his uncle Peyton's footsteps and returned to school for a fourth season, with the chance to make money and boost his draft stock.

Because he redshirted his true freshman season, Manning has a fifth year of eligibility in 2027 if he wants to use it.

MORE 2026 NFL DRAFT:

• Complete 7-round mock draft
• Trade predictions for the first round
• Where will each quarterback go in 2026 draft?

2027 NFL mock draft

Mock drafts are not widely available for 2027 just yet, but SN's Bill Bender ranked the quarterback prospects and believes Manning is the current favorite to be the first off the board:

1. Arch Manning, Texas
2. Dante Moore, Oregon
3. Julian Sayin, Ohio State
4. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
5. CJ Carr, Notre Dame
6. Jayden Maiava, USC
7. Darian Mensah, Duke
8. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
9. Josh Hoover, Indiana
10. Sam Leavitt, LSU

The quarterback outlook for the 2026 draft changed massively over the past year, so it's possible the top of this class looks much different in 2027 than it does right now.

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Arch Manning stats

Manning didn't make his first start until 2024 and didn't become Texas' full-time starter until 2025. He has 49 total touchdowns and nine interceptions across 15 starts and some relief work in hic college career, with 14 of his touchdowns coming on the ground.