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(Bloomberg) — The US and Israeli war against Iran could wipe out nearly $200 billion worth of economic growth across the Middle East, a new United Nations study found.
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Arab nations stand to lose between $120 billion and $194 billion from gross domestic product as a result of disruptions from the war, according to an analysis by the UN Development Program of the economic and social consequences for Arab states, which was released early Tuesday.
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The agency said it had studied a number of different scenarios to determine how the conflict, which began on Feb. 28, might affect countries in the region. The report’s authors indicated that the damage could be profound, even if the war ends relatively soon. “A short-lived military escalation in the Middle East could generate profound and widespread socio-economic impacts across the Arab States region,” they said.
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The overall loss could result in the regional unemployment rate rising by as much as four percentage points, costing some 3.6 million jobs and pushing as many as four million people into poverty, the report says.
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“This crisis rings alarm bells for countries of the region,” Abdallah Al Dardari, the UN assistant secretary general leading the UNDP Arab states bureau, said in a statement.
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The hardest-hit regions would be concentrated in Gulf Cooperation Council countries and in the Levant, with each region set to lose more than 5.2% of their GDP.
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The conflict, now entering its second month, has already sent global energy prices soaring, unnerving the global economy. An earlier UN report found the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz was raising food and fertilizer prices in a way that could hit poorer countries particularly hard.
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